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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-09-19 10:52:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190852 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM HIGH ISLAND...TX TO CAMERON...LA INCLUDING SABINE LAKE AND CALCASIEU LAKE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO CAMERON...LA INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE AND CALCASIEU LAKE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 92.5W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 92.5W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 92.3W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.6N 92.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.9N 93.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.1N 94.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.4N 95.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 27.7N 95.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.1N 96.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 28.7N 95.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.7N 93.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 92.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 28

2020-09-19 10:49:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 190849 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 58.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 300SE 390SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 58.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 57.8W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.3N 59.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.0N 61.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.5N 62.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 31.6N 61.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 170SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.2N 61.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. 34 KT...300NE 250SE 200SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.2N 61.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...150NE 140SE 120SW 150NW. 34 KT...350NE 250SE 250SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 45.5N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 51.5N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 58.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-09-19 10:32:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190832 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Helpful AMSR microwave imagery from near 4Z revealed that Wilfred consists of a small low embedded within a broader elongated area of low pressure. A skinny, ragged band of convection wraps around the western and southern portions of the tropical storm, but Wilfred is only producing a small amount of convection near its center. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are generally near 35 kt, and the intensity is held at that value. No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. Wilfred should continue to move generally west-northwestward for the next few days, steered by a subtropical ridge to the north. Small fluctuations in intensity are possible for the next day or two, but Wilfred should be on the overall decline by the end of the weekend due to increasing wind shear and an expected influx of dry, stable air. The dynamical guidance consensus is that Wilfred will open into a trough and dissipate in about 72 h, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. Both the NHC track and intensity forecasts are based on the multi-model consensus throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 13.1N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 13.8N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 14.8N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 15.8N 44.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 16.5N 46.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 16.8N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 27

2020-09-19 04:59:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 190259 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Teddy continues to have an impressive appearance on satellite images with a fairly symmetrical Central Dense Overcast, although recent images show some warming of the cloud tops over the southeastern part of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over the northern semicircle of the hurricane and not as strong to the south. Earlier microwave images showed a concentric eyewall structure and it appears that the hurricane has re-intensified slightly over the past several hours. The current intensity estimate is set at 115 kt which is a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Some additional fluctuations in strength as a result of eyewall replacements could occur through Saturday. On Sunday and beyond, a less conducive oceanic and atmospheric environment should lead to slow weakening. However, Teddy should remain a powerful hurricane for the next several days. The numerical guidance shows that the circulation will become even larger during the forecast period due to Teddy combined with a high pressure area coming behind a cold front over the eastern United States. Teddy is expected to make the transition to an extratropical cyclone when it moves into Atlantic Canada. The hurricane continues its northwestward trek and is moving around 325/11 kt. Teddy should move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system for the next day or so. Then, the cyclone should turn northward with an increase in forward speed as it approaches a strong mid-latitude trough cutting off into a low as it moves off the northeast U.S. coast in 2-3 days. The track of the system could bend a bit the left as it interacts with the trough/low while approaching Nova Scotia. Around the end of the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn northeastward as it moves along the eastern side of a mid-level trough. The official track forecast is close to the corrected model consensus. Teddy is producing seas to 48 feet and an extensive area of large waves and swells which are impacting much of the western Atlantic basin. See the Key Messages below. Key Messages: 1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday, there is still a risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on the island, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the weekend. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 24.0N 57.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 29.0N 61.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 30.8N 62.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 33.5N 61.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 37.7N 61.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 45.5N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/0000Z 50.5N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-09-19 04:58:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190258 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Beta this evening found that the center has re-formed or been tugged northeastward by bursts of strong convection. While flying through that convection, the plane measured a peak flight-level wind of 57 kt at 10,000 feet before descending to 2500 feet. To the northwest of the center, the SFMR instrument on the plane measured a solid area of 46-48 kt, and there have been multiple ship reports in the region of 40-45 kt. Based on all these data, Beta's initial intensity is estimated to be 50 kt. The plane reported an extrapolated minimum pressure of 996 mb on the last pass through the center, which also corresponds to a typical 50-kt tropical storm. The aircraft fixes indicate that Beta is moving north-northeastward, or 030/10 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 12 hours or so, but as mid-level ridging develops over the Southern Plains on Saturday, Beta should begin to slow down and turn westward. A slow motion in the direction of the Texas coast should continue through day 3, with a shortwave trough possibly causing the cyclone to recurve and move northeastward near or along the Texas coast on days 4 and 5. While there remains a large amount of spread among the track models, they all agree on this general scenario and indicate that Beta is likely to move very slowly as it makes its closest approach to the Texas coast. The initial position fixed by the plane necessitated a northward shift in the NHC official forecast compared to the previous forecast for the first 3 days, but it comes back in line with the previous prediction on days 4 and 5. Beta has been able to strengthen despite being affected by strong southwesterly shear. The shear could begin to relax over the next few days, particularly by day 2 and 3, which could allow for some further strengthening. The SHIPS guidance remains the most aggressive of the intensity models, and the NHC intensity forecast leans heavily toward those solutions given Beta's recent intensification trend (which SHIPS seemed to handle better). Beta is forecast to steadily strengthen and become a hurricane in a couple of days as it approaches the Texas coast. Some weakening is forecast on days 4 and 5 due to another increase in southwesterly shear and possible land interaction. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the Texas coast early next week, with tropical storm conditions possible by late this weekend. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches are in effect, and residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 25.5N 92.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 26.3N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 26.8N 92.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 26.8N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 27.0N 94.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 27.4N 95.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 27.8N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 28.4N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 29.4N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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