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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 12

2020-09-20 16:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 201456 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...LOUISIANA...INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE...AND LAKE CALCASIEU A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 93.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......170NE 30SE 40SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 93.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 92.8W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.6N 93.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 30SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 28.1N 95.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.6N 95.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.0N 96.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.6N 95.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.2N 94.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 32.1N 92.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 34.4N 89.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 93.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number beta storm advisory

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 33

2020-09-20 16:55:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 201455 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 The satellite signature of Teddy has degraded from an eye pattern overnight into a central dense overcast this morning. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the hurricane has weakened, and the initial wind speed is set to 90 kt, perhaps generously. The aircraft data does still show that Teddy remains a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward in the northeastward quadrant to about 70 n mi. While the forecast intensity does not change much over the next couple of days, the hurricane should undergo significant changes during that time. Teddy should not lose any more strength by late today due to favorable positioning with an approaching trough, and the gale-force winds should greatly expand due to this trough interaction. In 2 or 3 days, after the system occludes and becomes post-tropical, the cyclone should weaken because of a loss of extratropical forcing while over the cooler water south of Nova Scotia. Eventually Teddy will probably get absorbed by a larger extratropical low around day 5. Model guidance is fairly tightly packed around the official wind forecast, which leans on the global models given the substantial extratropical contributions, plus or minus 5 kt throughout the forecast period. The hurricane has resumed a northwestward motion or 320/8 kt. Teddy is likely to turn northward today and north-northeastward tomorrow due to the aforementioned trough. By early Tuesday, the cyclone should turn back to the north-northwest as it rotates around the same trough, then turn northeastward early Wednesday ahead of yet another trough moving into from eastern Canada. Although the forecast evolution is complex, model guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and no substantial changes were made to the previous forecast. Regardless of the details, every model has a rather large and strong post-tropical cyclone south of Nova Scotia in about 3 days. Key Messages: 1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning this evening and could continue into Monday evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 28.3N 62.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 29.2N 63.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 31.0N 62.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 38.8N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 41.7N 63.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/1200Z 53.0N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 25/1200Z 60.5N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Tropical Depression Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-09-20 16:50:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 201450 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Wilfred Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 First-light visible imagery of Wilfred shows a well-defined center south of widespread - but not very well banded - deep convection. The improved positioning this morning allows for a more confident assessment of its movement toward the west-northwest at 17 kt. As the system slowly winds down, it will be increasingly steered by the low-level flow indicating a slower movement toward the west or west-northwest until dissipation. The new track forecast is slightly farther west due to the faster initial motion within 36 hours, then slightly farther east afterward based upon the TVCN track consensus approach. While the ASCAT scatterometer passes this morning missed Wilfred's center, ASCAT-B observed 30 kt peak winds in its northeastern quadrant. This value is used as the initial intensity, consistent with both SAB and TAFB's Dvorak classifications. The combination of outflow from Hurricane Teddy as well as winds on the southern side of an impinging upper-level trough are causing about 20 kt vertical shear from the west-northwest. This shear should increase over the next couple of days as Wilfred gets into closer proximity with the trough. The strong shear and dry mid-level humidities should continue to cause a reduction of the deep convection and lead to the system becoming a remnant low in a couple of days followed within another day or so by dissipation. All statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is in agreement with this scenario. Alternatively, Wilfred could become a remnant low sooner, if the convection ceases later today or Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 15.7N 44.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 16.2N 46.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 16.5N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 16.8N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 17.0N 51.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0000Z 17.2N 52.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 33

2020-09-20 16:50:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 201449 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS IN ATLANTIC CANANDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 62.8W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..510NE 270SE 420SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 62.8W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 62.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.2N 63.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 170SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.0N 62.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...280NE 200SE 200SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. 34 KT...350NE 270SE 290SW 310NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.8N 63.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 50 KT...200NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. 34 KT...350NE 330SE 290SW 280NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.7N 63.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...310NE 280SE 260SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...190NE 250SE 200SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 53.0N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 60.5N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 62.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Depression Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 9

2020-09-20 16:44:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 201444 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 44.2W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 44.2W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 43.5W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.2N 46.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 48.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.8N 50.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.0N 51.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.2N 52.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 44.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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