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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 11

2020-09-20 10:54:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200854 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WATCH BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF PORT MANSFIELD...TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...LOUISIANA...INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY... GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE...AND LAKE CALCASIEU A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 92.7W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......170NE 30SE 40SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 92.7W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 92.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 27.2N 93.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 30SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.6N 94.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.2N 95.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.8N 96.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.2N 96.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 29.7N 95.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 31.4N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 33.8N 90.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 92.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 11

2020-09-20 10:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200851 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020 Beta has generally changed little overnight. The storm remains strongly sheared with deep convection confined to the north and northeast of the low-level center. A combination of flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters a few hours ago supports keeping the 50-kt initial intensity. It should be noted that the wind field is quite asymmetric with the strongest winds located in the deep convection and farther to the northeast behind an old frontal boundary. Beta was caught in weak steering currents for nearly a day, but it now seems to be moving. The current initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 3 kt. A mid-level ridge currently centered over the southwestern U.S. is forecast to slide eastward, which should cause Beta to move a little faster to the west-northwestward later today. This motion should continue for a couple of days, taking the storm to the Texas coast on Monday or Monday night. After Beta moves inland, the ridge is forecast to move away as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. This change in the pattern is expected to cause Beta to slow down, or even stall, on Tuesday and then turn northeastward after that. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, and it is fairly similar to the previous prediction. The tropical storm is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of southwesterly wind shear and a fair amount of dry air, especially on the west side of the circulation. Since the shear is not expected to decrease much while Beta moves into an even drier and more stable air mass, little change in intensity is expected through landfall in 36 to 48 hours. After Beta moves inland, steady weakening is forecast due to a combination of land interaction, dry air, and an increase in southwesterly shear. The models are in fair agreement, and this forecast is largely an update of the previous one. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and river flooding is likely. Rainfall will then spread northward into the lower Mississippi River Valley by mid-week where flash, urban, and river flooding is possible. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm force winds are occurring along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning area in Louisiana. These winds will spread westward to the Texas coast later today and Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 27.0N 92.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 27.2N 93.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 27.6N 94.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 28.2N 95.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 28.8N 96.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 22/1800Z 29.2N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/0600Z 29.7N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0600Z 31.4N 92.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 25/0600Z 33.8N 90.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 32

2020-09-20 10:50:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 200850 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 The convective structure of Teddy has degraded substantially since the last advisory, with no sign of an eye in conventional satellite imagery. The most recent available microwave imagery from last night suggested that Teddy still had a very well defined low to mid-level inner-core, but this has not translated to the higher levels more apparent at night. Intensity estimates have decreased, so the initial intensity has been lowered slightly to 100 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane later this morning and should provide more information about its structure and strength. Teddy's evolution for the next few days appears to be a tale of 3 troughs. Upper-level westerly flow associated with the first upper-level trough, affecting the storm now, is the most likely reason why the hurricane's structure has degraded and has taken on a slightly sheared appearance. Teddy will begin to encounter the 2nd trough, a deep frontal system approaching from the west, later today and that should cause the hurricane to turn north. This interaction should steer the center of Teddy east of Bermuda, but tropical storm impacts from either the large hurricane, the frontal system, or both are still likely Sunday evening through Monday night. All indications are that Teddy will then continue generally northward and merge with the frontal system, nearing Nova Scotia as an extratropical cyclone early Wednesday. Teddy's maximum winds will likely decrease sharply after it becomes post-tropical, as shown by all the intensity guidance, but its gale and storm-force wind radii will likely increase at the same time. The cyclone should turn northeastward as the 3rd trough, another mid-latitude system, approaches from the west. Teddy could be absorbed by that feature in as soon as 120 h, though this is not explicitly shown in the forecast at this time. The spread in the track and intensity guidance is quite low and confidence in both aspects of the forecast is high. There is a little more uncertainty in the wind radii evolution, but it is clear that Teddy will produce strong winds over a wide area of the northwest Atlantic during the next couple of days. The extent of 12-foot or higher seas associated with Teddy continues to increase. See the Key Message below regarding swells caused by the hurricane. Key Messages: 1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning this evening and could continue into Monday evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 28.0N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 28.9N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 30.4N 62.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 33.3N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 37.5N 62.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 40.9N 63.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/0600Z 43.8N 62.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/0600Z 51.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 25/0600Z 58.5N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 32

2020-09-20 10:44:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 896 WTNT25 KNHC 200844 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 62.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..510NE 330SE 420SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 62.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 61.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.9N 62.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.4N 62.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 180SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.3N 62.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 230SE 250SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 37.5N 62.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW. 34 KT...365NE 300SE 270SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.9N 63.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...350NE 300SE 250SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 43.8N 62.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 250SW 250NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 51.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 58.5N 41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 62.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 8

2020-09-20 10:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200836 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 It is unclear if Wilfred still exists, and if so, exactly where it is located. Although there is clear evidence of a broad elongated circulation, the formerly small center of Wilfred is either obscured by higher clouds or has dissipated. AMSR-2 microwave imagery at 0431 UTC showed only evidence of a northwest-southeast oriented trough with one or more embedded mesoscale lows. Visible imagery and the next round of ASCAT passes will hopefully provide more information about Wilfred's status later this morning. The intensity remains 35 kt based on ASCAT data from last night, but more recent Dvorak estimates are lower. Due to the uncertainty associated with Wilfred's status and location, the motion estimate is a very uncertain 295/15 kt. In general, Wilfred or its eventual remnants should continue on a west-northwestward heading today, and then could turn westward by early Monday. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance suite. Virtually no change has been made to the official intensity forecast. Wilfred will likely gradually weaken until it dissipates due to a combination of increasing wind shear and a dry environment. The exact point at which Wilfred will become a trough varies from model to model, but confidence is fairly high that Wilfred won't last much longer than another day or two. The NHC forecast carries Wilfred for 48 h based on persistence from the previous advisory, but if recent trends hold, it could dissipate as soon as later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.7N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 16.2N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 16.5N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 16.7N 50.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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