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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-09-19 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 191450 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Wilfred still consists of a very small low-level circulation embedded within an elongated area of low pressure. There has been a bit of an increase in deep convection near/over the estimated center during the past few hours, and the intensity remains 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB and UW-CIMSS SATCON. Wilfred will be moving over SSTs of around 28C but will experience a gradual increase in westerly shear during the next 24 to 36 hours as an upper-level trough amplifies to the northwest, and this should result in little change in strength during that time. Beyond that time, the cyclone moves into a drier and more stable airmass, which should result in the system becoming a remnant low and dissipating in 60 to 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN consensus. The initial motion estimate based on the latest satellite fixes is 285/12. Wilfred should continue moving generally west- northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hours and then turn more westward by 48 h as it becomes a shallower system. The new NHC track forecast is a bit faster than the previous one and has been adjusted farther south at 36 h and beyond, trending toward the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 13.4N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 14.2N 40.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 15.2N 43.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 15.9N 45.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 16.2N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 16.3N 49.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 29
2020-09-19 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 191450 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 59.0W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 300SE 390SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 59.0W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 58.6W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.8N 61.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.4N 62.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.1N 61.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 220SE 220SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.1N 61.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...320NE 280SE 220SW 320NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.8N 61.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...350NE 290SE 250SW 280NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 47.0N 59.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 52.9N 51.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 59.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-19 16:49:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 191449 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 38.1W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 38.1W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 37.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.2N 40.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.2N 43.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.9N 45.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.2N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.3N 49.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 38.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-19 10:56:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 190856 CCA TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS RADII THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 36.9W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 36.9W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 36.2W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.8N 39.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.8N 41.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.8N 44.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 46.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.8N 48.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 36.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-19 10:54:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190853 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Beta has generally changed little overnight. The storm is still quite asymmetric due to southwesterly wind shear with the low-level center located near the southwestern edge of the main area of deep convection. An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed peak winds in the 40-45 kt range, with most of the tropical-storm-force winds on the north side of the circulation. In addition, the latest Dvorak classifications are 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity of 50 kt, based on the earlier aircraft data, is a little above the satellite estimates. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Beta again later this morning, and the data they collect will provide a better estimate of the intensity and structure of the storm. Beta is moving northward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 360/7 kt. The shortwave trough that has been causing the north to northeastward motion during the past day or so is moving away and a weak mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north of the storm soon. This change in the steering pattern should cause Beta to turn westward and slow down later today and then move generally westward to northwestward through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. This motion should take Beta toward the Texas coast by Monday. Around the time Beta is forecast to be near the Texas coastline, the ridge is expected to retreat as another shortwave trough approaches, which should cause the storm to slow down even more and gradually turn to the northeast near the Texas coast by the middle of next week. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies close to the various consensus aids. As mentioned above, the tropical storm is still feeling some effects of southwesterly wind shear, but the upper-level pattern is expected to become more favorable for strengthening later today. Although the shear is expected to lessen, water vapor images show a swath of dry air approaching the storm from the west. Based on these mixed environmental conditions, slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and Beta is forecast to reach hurricane intensity in about 36 hours. Beyond a few days, the models suggest that there could be another increase in southwesterly shear, which in combination with land interaction should cause some weakening. Of course, the rate of weakening will depend on whether Beta is inland or offshore. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies at the high end of the model guidance. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the Texas coast early next week, with tropical storm conditions possible by late this weekend. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches are in effect, and residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 26.0N 92.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 26.6N 92.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 26.9N 93.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 27.1N 94.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 27.4N 95.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 27.7N 95.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 28.1N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 28.7N 95.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 29.7N 93.3W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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