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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-09-19 22:33:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 192033 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 A small low-level swirl that is apparently Wilfred's circulation center was noted in late afternoon visible imagery. The coldest cloud tops are in a small area of bursting convection to the northeast of the center with a ragged convective band noted to the south and southwest. The latest objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates remain 35 kt, and that will be the intensity for this advisory, but could be a bit generous. Increasing westerly shear and a drying airmass along the forecast track should result in weakening within 36 to 48 hours, and global models show the cyclone dissipating by 60 h. However, given the small size of the system, it wouldn't be surprising if the cyclone weakened or dissipated sooner than shown here. The initial motion estimate is 290/12. Wilfred should continue west-northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hours before turning westward in the low-level flow prior to dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the consensus aids and the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 14.0N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 14.8N 41.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 15.6N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 16.0N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 16.2N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-09-19 22:32:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 192032 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 39.2W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 39.2W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 38.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 14.8N 41.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.6N 44.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.0N 46.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.2N 48.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 39.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 8

2020-09-19 17:38:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191538 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 8...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Corrected 96 and 120 h intensities Morning visible imagery indicates that Beta has become significantly sheared, with the low-level center mostly exposed well to the southwest of the main convective area. A new convective band is currently forming near the center over the northwestern quadrant. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported pressures near 994-995 mb, along with flight-level and SFMR winds that justify keeping the initial intensity at 50 kt. The storm appears to be starting its westward turn, and the initial motion is now 315/3. The mid- to upper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is lifting out, with a mid-level ridge building to the north of Beta. This should cause the storm to turn more westward during the next 6-12 h. After that, a slow west- northwestward to northwestward motion should develop, with the center now forecast to be near or over the middle Texas coast in about 72 h. Beyond 72 h, another mid-latitude trough moving through the central United States should cause Beta to recurve slowly to the northeast. The new NHC forecast is shifted a little to the west and now explicitly shows landfall on the Texas coast in about 72 h. This new forecast is a little to the north of the consensus models through 72 h and close to them after that time. There are lots of uncertainties in the intensity forecast. First, the global models suggest that the ongoing southwesterly shear may not subside that much even though the first trough is lifting out. Second, GOES-16 air mass imagery shows abundant upper-level dry air over the western Gulf of Mexico, including near the storm center. Third, surface observations show a drier low-level airmass in place over southeastern Texas, and some of this may get entrained into the storm. The intensity guidance has trended downward to the point where none of the models are currently forecasting Beta to become a hurricane. Based on this and the current storm structure, the intensity forecast has been adjusted to show little change in strength today, followed by slow strengthening to a hurricane by 48-60 h. However, this forecast is well above the guidance, and additional downward adjustments may be needed later today. A Tropical Storm Warning is being issued for parts of the Texas and Louisiana coasts at this time. A Hurricane Warning could still be issued later today or tonight depending on later intensity forecasts. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta has the potential to produce a long duration rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. The potentially prolonged period of rainfall could cause flash, urban, and river flooding, especially where tide levels are above normal. 2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, with tropical storm conditions expected by late this weekend. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches and Tropical Storm warnings are in effect, and residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 26.6N 92.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 26.9N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 27.1N 93.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 27.5N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 27.8N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 28.2N 96.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 28.6N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 23/1200Z 29.5N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 24/1200Z 30.5N 93.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-09-19 17:37:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 191537 CCA TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CORRECTED 96 AND 120 H INTENSITIES CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO CAMERON...LA INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE AND CALCASIEU LAKE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 92.6W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 92.6W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 26.9N 93.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 27.1N 93.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.5N 94.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.8N 95.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.2N 96.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.6N 96.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 95.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 30.5N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 92.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 29

2020-09-19 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 191450 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 The overall appearance of Teddy has degraded slightly since early this morning, with the eye no longer readily apparent in satellite imagery. However, microwave data a few hours ago showed that a well- defined outer eyewall exists with a decaying partial inner eyewall. This indicates that an eyewall replacement cycle is just about complete. The objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates generally agree on an intensity of 98-102 kt, but out of respect for the completing eyewall replacement cycle the initial intensity is set to a slightly more generous 105 kt. Teddy will be moving over slightly cooler waters caused by upwelling from Paulette over the next day or so and this should cause the hurricane to slowly weaken. However, in about 36 h the cyclone's wind field is forecast to begin expanding as it interacts with an approaching frontal system. Around 48-60 h, vertical wind shear is expected to dramatically increase as Teddy becomes embedded in the flow around a sharp mid-latitude upper-level trough. The interaction of the cyclone with both the front and trough should cause Teddy to begin an extratropical transition, with the post-tropical cyclone quickly weakening once the transition is complete. The SHIPS guidance and global model simulated satellite imagery tend to agree that the extratropical transition should be completed just after 72 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast was nudged downward slightly mainly due to the change in the initial intensity, and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. The hurricane continues its northwestward movement, now at 12 kt. The track forecast for Teddy remains essentially unchanged and is in the middle of tightly clustered guidance. Teddy is expected to turn northward to north-northeastward Sunday morning as it approaches a frontal system over the western Atlantic. This pattern should steer the hurricane east of Bermuda, though the hurricane's large wind field means that the island will still likely experience tropical storm conditions beginning by Sunday evening and continuing through much of Monday. A slight turn to the north then perhaps the north- northwest should occur Monday night into Tuesday as Teddy pivots around the upper trough. By Tuesday night, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward as the upper trough to its southwest begins to lift into the higher latitudes. Teddy is producing an extensive area of large waves and swells which are impacting much of the western Atlantic basin. See the Key Messages below. Key Messages: 1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday, tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning Sunday afternoon or evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 26.0N 59.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 28.8N 61.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 30.4N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 33.1N 61.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 37.1N 61.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 40.8N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 47.0N 59.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 24/1200Z 52.9N 51.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto

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