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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-06 22:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 062032 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.0W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 110.0W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 109.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.6N 112.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.7N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.6N 115.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.4N 116.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.2N 116.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 110.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-06 16:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061434 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 Julio has surprisingly accelerated west-northwestward during the past few hours, moving around the northeast periphery of a broad trough of low pressure. The tiny tropical storm continues to produce small but frequent bursts of central convection and has not changed appreciably since the most recent ASCAT pass that supported an intensity of 40 kt. Julio's future is unusually unclear for a system that is forecast to dissipate. The global models are struggling to resolve Julio, and only the ECMWF has a realistic current depiction of the cyclone. Those models universally indicate that Julio will either dissipate or be absorbed by the aforementioned broad area of low pressure located to its southwest within the next 24 to 36 hours. This is certainly plausible given Julio's small size and limited convection. On the other hand, the HWRF and HMON models now indicate that Julio will not only persist through day 5, but potentially strengthen when upper-level winds are forecast to become less hostile in a couple days. The disagreement can not be explained entirely by model resolution as the COAMPS-TC also weakens Julio. I see no clear reason to support one solution over another at this point. Therefore, the official forecast continues to show dissipation for now, though the intensity has been hedged slightly higher at 48 h and 60 h. The NHC track forecast leans heavily on the HWRF and HMON models and has been adjusted significantly faster for the first 24 h due to Julio's recent acceleration. Much larger changes may be required to the forecast later today or tonight if it becomes more likely that Julio will persist longer than currently indicated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 19.2N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 20.3N 113.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 20.4N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 20.2N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 20.2N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-06 16:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 061431 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.8W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.8W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.9N 111.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.3N 113.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.4N 115.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.2N 115.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N 116.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 108.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-06 10:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060833 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 300 AM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020 Julio is a compact and well-defined tropical storm as indicated by recent satellite-derived wind data and microwave imagery, with the center located underneath the eastern portion of the deep convection. A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds of 39 kt, and based on this data the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt. Julio has accelerated and is now moving west-northwestward at 18 kt around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This motion should continue for the next day or so, with a gradual decrease in forward speed. A turn to west is anticipated by Monday as the cyclone begins to weaken and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The latest forecast is similar to the previous one through 24 h, but was shifted southward thereafter in response to a southerly shift in the guidance. The intensity forecast for Julio is low confidence, as the global models have struggled to resolve the small size of the cyclone, resulting in a large spread in the intensity guidance. The SHIPS guidance suggests that the moderate easterly shear currently impacting Julio will decrease in 12-24 h, while the system is still over warm waters and in a moist atmospheric environment. Therefore, this guidance indicates that some slight strengthening is expected over the next couple of days. Despite the generally favorable conditions shown in the SHIPS guidance, the global models show no further intensification and weaken the cyclone almost immediately. Due to the resilience of Julio up until this point, the latest NHC intensity forecast leans towards the higher SHIPS guidance over the next day or so, then trends toward the lower global model forecasts later on in the forecast period. All of the global models suggest Julio will dissipate in a few days, and this is still being indicated in the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.6N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.6N 108.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 19.9N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 20.1N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 20.2N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-09-06 10:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060831 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.0W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 106.0W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.6N 108.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.9N 112.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N 113.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.2N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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