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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-09-03 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 721 WTNT45 KNHC 031435 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 Surprisingly, Omar's cloud pattern has changed little since it was classified as a tropical depression yesterday morning. A shapeless deep convective cloud mass still exists about 60 miles to the southeast of the sheared, exposed surface circulation center and the subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are a carbon copy of the satellite intensity classifications 24 hours ago. Therefore, the initial intensity is once again held at 30 kt. The large-scale models as well as the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show further weakening to a remnant low in 24 hours, and dissipation as soon as Saturday morning. Because of Omar's resiliency in such a harsh upper-level wind surrounding environment, the NHC forecast shows Omar holding onto depression status for another 12-18 hours, then finally degenerating to a remnant low Friday. The initial estimated motion hasn't changed either during the past 24 hours and is toward the east, or 085/11 kt within the deep-layer westerly flow provided by a subtropical ridge situated over the central Atlantic. This due east heading should continue through Friday morning, the a turn toward the east-northeast to northeast is forecast by Friday night in response to an approaching mid-latitude frontal zone. The official forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is based on the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 35.9N 61.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 35.8N 59.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 35.6N 57.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 36.2N 56.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 37.8N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-03 16:34:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 031434 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HONDURAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR GUATEMALA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 90.3W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 90.3W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 89.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.0N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.4N 94.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.9N 96.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 90.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-09-03 16:34:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 031434 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 1500 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 61.1W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 61.1W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 61.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 35.8N 59.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.6N 57.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 36.2N 56.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 37.8N 55.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 61.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-03 10:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030845 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 Omar continues to produce bursts of deep convection with the center occasionally obscured beneath the northern edge of the convective canopy. Based on last evening's ASCAT pass and a recent classification of T2.0 from TAFB, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Amazingly, 50 kt of north-northwesterly shear has not been enough to prevent deep convection from developing, likely because Omar remains in an unstable thermodynamic environment and over sea surface temperatures of 27-28 degrees Celsius. These conditions are not expected to become less conducive for convective development, and the only thing that will likely make it harder for Omar to maintain convection will be the shear vector becoming increasingly out of phase with the storm motion vector during the next couple of days. With the current round of convection ongoing, it may take a little while longer for Omar to degenerate to a remnant low, and that occurrence has been pushed to 24 hours in the NHC forecast. Dissipation has been moved to 60 hours since all global models indicate that the remnant low's circulation should open up into a trough by then. Omar is moving eastward (090/12 kt) along the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge. A general eastward motion should continue for the next 24 hours, with Omar then turning toward the northeast by 48 hours ahead of an approaching cold front. The NHC track forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed guidance suite, and this new prediction is very close to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 36.3N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 36.0N 60.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 35.8N 58.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 36.1N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 37.2N 55.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-03 10:44:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 457 WTNT41 KNHC 030844 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 Nana made landfall on the coast of Belize about 45 n mi south of Belize City around 0600 UTC today. It is estimated to be located inland and weakening over the southern part of that country with maximum winds of no more than 60 kt at this time. The small circulation will be moving over mountainous terrain today and tonight, so rapid weakening is likely. The official forecast is similar to the Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance, and calls for the system to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday. Although the remnants of Nana are forecast to move into the east Pacific in about 36 hours, the model guidance is in good agreement that conditions in that area will not be conducive for regeneration. The tropical cyclone continues to move a little south of west, or around 255/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Nana should keep it moving on a west to west-southwestward track during the next day or so. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and on the northern side of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning areas in Belize, Mexico, Guatemala, and the Bay Islands of Honduras this morning. Storm surge along the Belize coast will subside this morning as Nana moves farther inland. 2. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12 inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 16.7N 88.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 03/1800Z 16.4N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0600Z 15.8N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 15.3N 95.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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