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Hurricane Laura Forecast Advisory Number 31
2020-08-27 16:47:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 271447 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF SABINE PASS... TEXAS AND EAST OF PORT FOURCHON...LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TEXAS TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 93.1W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 93.1W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 93.3W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.9N 92.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.8N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.0N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.7N 74.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.8N 66.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 50.0N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 53.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 93.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-08-27 16:47:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 271447 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 106.2W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 106.2W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.1N 107.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.2N 108.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.2N 110.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 112.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.5N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 106.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-27 10:50:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270849 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 A sheared band of deep convection has persisted near and to the southwest and west of Iselle's center. Night-visible satellite imagery indicates that the circulation has tightened up somewhat, and the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON intensity estimate is 41 kt. Based on these satellite data, the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt. Unfortunately, all three scatterometer passes missed Iselle's inner-core wind field. The initial motion estimate is 030/04 kt. Similar to Tropical Storm Hernan farther to the east, Iselle is forecast to remain embedded within a large monsoon gyre, which will gradually contract down as Hernan moves toward southern Baja California and weakens over the next few days. This will result in the current southwesterly flow on the south side of Iselle to become more southerly, which will gradually turn the cyclone northward and then northwestward. By 72 hours, Iselle is expected to interact with and possibly absorb the remnants of Hernan when the two systems are west-southwest of Baja California. Thereafter, Iselle is forecast to move westward to west-southwestward and slowly weaken. The new NHC forecast track is close to a blend of the HCCA corrected-consensus model and the simple consensus models GFEX and TVCE, and is similar to the previous advisory track. Although short-lived convective bursts near the center will likely continue for the next few days, no significant strengthening is forecast for the next 48 hours due to moderate-to-strong easterly vertical wind shear that will persist across the system. At 60 hours and beyond, strong shear is expected to gradually weaken Iselle, with degeneration into a post-tropical remnant low forecast to occur by day 4, with the cyclone possibly even dissipating by 120 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 16.6N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 17.2N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 18.4N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 19.3N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 20.5N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 21.7N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 22.4N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 22.4N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-27 10:49:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270849 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 116.1W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 116.1W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N 115.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.8N 115.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.4N 114.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.3N 114.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.5N 113.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.7N 114.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 22.4N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 22.4N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 116.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-08-27 10:43:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270842 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Although Hernan is a sheared tropical cyclone, another strong burst of deep convection with cloud tops of -83C to -86C has developed near and south through west of the center. An 0401Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass revealed several 38-40 kt surface wind vectors of south through southwest of the center, so the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt, which is supported by a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 40 kt. The initial motion is estimate is 355/04 kt. Hernan is expected to remain caught within a large-scale, eastern North Pacific cyclonic gyre during the next few days, which will result in Hernan moving counter-clockwise around the eastern and northern periphery of the gyre. The cyclone will continue to move slowly northward this morning, followed by a turn toward the northwest by Thursday afternoon, with a west-northwestward motion expected on Friday. By Saturday, Hernan is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure system, and possibly even dissipate and merge with Tropical Storm Iselle when the two systems are west-southwest of Baja California. The new NHC track is a very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the simple track consensus models TVCE and GFEX, and the NOAA-HCCA corrected-consensus model. Hernan will remain in a moderate-to-strong easterly vertical wind shear regime for the next three days, which is expected to prevent any significant strengthening from occurring despite the cyclone being over warm waters and within a moist mid-level environment. By 60 hours, Hernan is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low, and possibly merge with Tropical Storm Iselle in 72-96 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 18.6N 106.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 19.5N 106.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 20.7N 107.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 21.9N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 22.7N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 22.7N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z 22.4N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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