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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-08-27 10:42:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 270842 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.0W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.0W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 106.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.7N 107.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.9N 108.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.7N 110.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.7N 112.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.4N 114.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Laura Forecast Discussion Number 30
2020-08-27 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 763 WTNT43 KNHC 270842 TCDAT3 Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Laura made landfall near Cameron, Louisiana, around 0600 UTC (1 am CDT) with maximum sustained winds of 130 kt, which is near the high end of category 4 status. At the time of landfall, Laura was a ferocious looking hurricane with a clear circular eye, an intense eyewall, and tightly-coiled surrounding spiral bands. Since the powerful hurricane has been inland for a few hours, there has been some decrease in winds, and the estimated initial wind speed based on Doppler radar data, surface observations, and guidance from an inland decay model is 105 kt. The hurricane is now moving northward with the initial motion estimated to be 355/13 kt. Laura is expected to continue moving northward through tonight, which should take the core of the system across Louisiana and Arkansas. After that, Laura will likely become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and the much weaker cyclone is forecast to move quickly east-northeastward across the southeast U.S. and the mid-Atlantic states on Friday and Saturday. By late in the weekend and early next week, Laura, or its extratropical remnants, should accelerate northeastward across the western Atlantic. Now that Laura is inland, rapid weakening is forecast and it will likely become a tropical storm later today and a tropical depression on Friday. It should be noted that strong hurricanes like Laura are not just coastal events. Even though Laura's highest winds will decrease quickly as it treks inland, significant impacts from heavy rains and strong wind gusts are likely through at least tonight across portions of Louisiana and Arkansas. Some strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is expected when the storm moves over the Atlantic waters late this weekend and early next week. Key Messages: 1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the storm. 2. Hurricane-force winds will continue this morning in portions of the hurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expected near Laura's eyewall. Hurricane-force winds and widespread damaging wind gusts will continue to spread well inland into portions of extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana through the day. 3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways is expected across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. This will also lead to minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic States Friday and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 30.5N 93.4W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 12H 27/1800Z 32.6N 93.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/0600Z 37.6N 85.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 29/1800Z 38.2N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 30/0600Z 39.8N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0600Z 47.9N 55.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0600Z 53.1N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky
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Hurricane Laura Forecast Advisory Number 30
2020-08-27 10:40:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270840 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN CANCELED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 93.4W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 93.4W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 93.3W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.6N 93.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.6N 85.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 38.2N 78.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 39.8N 71.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 100SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 47.9N 55.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 53.1N 46.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 93.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-27 04:58:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270258 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that a convective burst has formed a little closer to the center of Iselle during the past few hours, although the circulation remains at least somewhat elongated. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are near 35 kt, so that remains the initial intensity. The imagery, as well as model analyses, show that Iselle continues to be undergoing strong easterly shear. Iselle is embedded in a large monsoon gyre, and the southwesterly flow on the south side of the gyre should be the main steering influence for the next 60 h or so. This should result in the cyclone continuing its current slow motion toward the northeast. After that time, the cyclone should separate from the gyre, allowing a mid-level ridge to the north and northeast of the system to become the dominant steering mechanism. This should cause Iselle to turn to the north, then northwest, then eventually to the west. The track guidance is in good agreement with the general scenario, although there is some spread on when and where there turns will occur. The new forecast track is close to the HCCA corrected consensus mode and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Present indications are that the current strong shear will persist for several days, and after 72 h the forecast track takes the cyclone over cooler sea surface temperatures. Based on this, significant strengthening appears unlikely, although short-lived spin ups due to convective bursts are possible. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast in showing little change of strength for 72 h, followed by weakening to a depression and a remnant low. An alternative scenario is that the shear causes Iselle to weaken to a trough at any time during the next 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 16.2N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 16.7N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 17.3N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 17.9N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 20.7N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 22.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-27 04:58:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270257 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 116.2W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 116.2W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.7N 115.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.3N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.9N 114.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.7N 113.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 22.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 116.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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