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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-08-01 17:00:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 011500 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft around 1410 UTC indicated that the center of the eye of Isaias was located along the southern coast of northern Andros Island about 15 nmi south-southwest of Andros Town. The eye appearance in Bahamas and aircraft radar data, along with the visual reports from the flight crew, has gone from nearly closed a few hours ago to open in the southwestern quadrant more recently. However, the diameter of the eye has been has been holding steady between 20-22 nmi, an indication that Isaias has been able to fight off some modest southwesterly wind shear. The initial intensity has been lowered to 70 kt based on maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 77 kt, which equals about 70-kt surface wind speed, and the central pressure fluctuating between 987-990 mb. The initial motion estimate remains 315/10 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is now tightly packed about the previous 18-h worth of official track forecasts, and as a result, no significant changes were made to the previous advisory track. The global and regional models have come into much better agreement compared to 24 hours ago in taking Isaias northwestward slowly for the next 36 h or so, and moving the center near or keeping it just offshore the east-central Florida coast. By 48 hours, the hurricane is expected to turn northward around the western portion of the Bermuda-Azores ridge that will slowly be eroded by an approaching mid-level shortwave trough currently situated over the central United States. By 60 h and beyond, the aforementioned trough is expected to gradually accelerate Isaias northeastward near or along the coast from South Carolina to New England. The new NHC track forecast is basically an extension of the previous one, and lies very close to an average of the simple consensus model TVCA, and the corrected- consensus models NOAA-HCCA and FSSE. In the near term, Isaias could weaken a little bit this afternoon while passing over northern Andros Island. However, the still impressive vertical structure of the cyclone should allow for some re-strengthening after the center moves back over the warm Gulf Stream by this evening. The current SHIPS analyzed westerly vertical wind shear of 25 kt could be too high due to the model incorporating some of the storm's outflow. The models forecast the shear to weaken somewhat over the next 36 h while Isaias is moving over the Gulf Stream, and the 06Z UKMET shows Isaias moving underneath a 200-mb anticyclone, which would normally favor some strengthening. Given all of these factors, the official forecast maintains a steady intensity through Monday night. Slow weakening is forecast when Isais encounters more significant southwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of a strong upper-level trough that will be approaching the U.S. east coast on days 3-5. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge will continue in portions of the northwest Bahamas today and tonight. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida east coast by late tonight and Sunday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas, and flash urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, in eastern Florida, and from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia early next week. 5. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of the northeast Florida and southern Georgia coasts. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued later today and Sunday along the U.S. east coast as the risk of wind, heavy rainfall, and storm surge impacts continues to increase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 24.7N 77.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 25.7N 78.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 27.1N 79.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 28.5N 80.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 30.1N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 32.6N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 36.0N 76.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/1200Z 43.3N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 06/1200Z 49.0N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-08-01 16:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 011445 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HALLANDALE BEACH TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 77.9W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 45SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 77.9W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 77.5W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.7N 78.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.1N 79.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 28.5N 80.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.1N 80.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 32.6N 79.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.0N 76.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 43.3N 69.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 49.0N 57.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 77.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-01 16:32:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 011432 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 200 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 The center of the depression is mostly exposed this morning with deep convection remaining only over the northwest portion of the circulation. A recent ASCAT overpass showed a small area of winds of 20 to 25 kt in the northern semicircle. Based on this data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. The persistent convection has likely bought a little more time for the depression to survive. However, the cyclone is forecast to remain over SSTs of about 24 to 25 C for the next day or so. This should cause the convection to gradually decrease, causing the depression to become a remnant low by tonight. An alternative scenario is that the low could open into a trough before the convection dissipates. The depression is moving northwest at around 12 kt. A turn to the west-northwest is expected later today as the cyclone pivots around a large mid-level gyre to its southwest. This west-northwest motion should continue until the system dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 18.6N 22.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 19.8N 23.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-08-01 16:32:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 011432 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 22.2W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 22.2W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 21.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.8N 23.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 22.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-08-01 10:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 010855 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Isaias has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery this morning, likely due to the impact of westerly shear and dry air entrainment. The area of central convection has shrunk in size, although radar data from the Bahamas shows some banding near the center and occasional attempts to wrap up an eyewall. Also, a dry slot is now present in the eastern semicircle between the central convection and the outer banding. The last Hurricane Hunter mission indicated that the maximum winds had increased to near 75 kt, so that is maintained for this advisory. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the storm during the next several hours. The initial motion is now northwestward or 315/10 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged, as Isais should continue to move northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge today and begin to turn north-northwestward through a weakness in the ridge on Sunday. After that, the storm should recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies, with a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed likely. The track guidance envelope has shifted a little to the east near the Florida coast and calls for a slower forward motion that the previous guidance. Thus, the new forecast track has been adjusted a little east of, and slower than, the previous track. The hurricane is currently undergoing about 25 kt of westerly vertical shear, and some mid-level dry air is present west of the center. This combination should prevent any more intensification, and, while Isaias is expected to remain a hurricane as it passes near the Florida coast, at least slight weakening should occur during this time. Current indications from the global models are that the storm will continue to experience strong shear as it recurves, and thus the intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for weakening during this time. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Bahamas through Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida east coast late Saturday and Saturday night, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, across South to east-Central Florida, and across the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia early next week. 5. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge spreading along much of the the U.S. east coast through early next week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 23.9N 77.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 25.0N 78.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 26.3N 79.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 27.6N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 29.1N 80.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 31.2N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 34.0N 77.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 41.5N 71.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/0600Z 47.5N 61.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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