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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-08-01 10:51:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 010851 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HALLANDALE BEACH TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 77.1W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 70SE 30SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 45SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 77.1W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 76.6W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.0N 78.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.3N 79.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.6N 79.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 29.1N 80.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 31.2N 79.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 34.0N 77.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 41.5N 71.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 47.5N 61.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 77.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-01 10:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010832 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 Satellite images indicate that only a small area of deep convection remains with the depression, and the center is partially exposed on the southeastern edge of the thunderstorms. The initial wind speed is kept 30 kt based on persistence. It seems like the chance for the depression to become a tropical storm has passed with it now moving over cooler waters into a drier air mass. Thus weakening is forecast, and the system will likely degenerate into a remnant low later today. The depression continues moving northwestward, and that course should persist today before turning towards the west-northwest around a larger cyclonic gyre on Sunday. A slight northward adjustment has been made to the forecast, a bit south of the GFS model. All of the model guidance dissipate the small low within 36 hours, so this is indicated in the new forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 17.8N 21.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 19.2N 23.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/0600Z 20.5N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-01 10:31:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010831 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 21.6W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 21.6W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 21.3W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.2N 23.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.5N 26.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 21.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-01 04:48:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010248 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 200 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 The small depression maintained a large burst of convection in its northwest quadrant for several hours after the last advisory, though cloud tops have warmed steadily since around 00Z. An ASCAT-B pass near 2300 UTC showed max winds near 35 kt, but these winds coincided with the coldest cloud tops in Meteosat imagery at that time, indicating they may have been rain inflated. Data from ASCAT-C valid about 40 minutes earlier only showed peak winds closer to 30 kt, also near the deepest convection. The highest wind retrievals in the east half of the circulation, where you would often expect the highest winds for a system moving north or northwest, were between 25 and 30 kt in both passes. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 30 kt and 25 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, at 00Z. It is possible that the cyclone briefly had tropical-storm-strength winds at one point, but given the observed warming of cloud tops since 00Z, the intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. There is no real change to the forecast reasoning. The depression is moving northwestward and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today as it moves around a larger cyclonic gyre. Conditions do not appear to be favorable for any strengthening, and the dynamical models indicate that deep convection will dissipate later today due to cool underlying SSTs and a drier surrounding environment. The NHC track and intensity forecast is based on the TVCA and IVCN consensus aids and has not been changed significantly from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 17.1N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 18.4N 22.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 19.3N 25.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1200Z 20.0N 28.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-08-01 04:45:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 010245 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 21.1W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 21.1W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 20.6W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.4N 22.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.3N 25.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 21.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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