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Remnants of Ten Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-08-02 04:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 598 WTNT25 KNHC 020238 TCMAT5 REMNANTS OF TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 25.0W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 25.0W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 24.2W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 25.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 19

2020-08-01 22:52:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 012052 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 The last data received from a previous Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, along with recent satellite and radar imagery, indicate that Isaias has weakened to a tropical storm due to a combination of shear, dry air and interaction with Andros Island earlier today. The initial intensity of 60 kt is based on SFMR surface wind speeds of near 60 kt in the northeastern quadrant on the last flight. A new reconnaissance mission into the cyclone is currently ongoing and will provide new data concerning the Isaias' intensity. The initial motion estimate is 315/09 kt. After making a slight west-northwestward jog a few hours ago after convection significantly weakened, Isaias appears to have returned to its base northwestward course. The new NHC model guidance is tightly packed but has shifted slightly westward, with some of the more reliable models now showing landfall along the east-central Florida coast in about 24 hours. Earlier NOAA G-IV jet dropsonde data and 12Z upper-air data reveal that the surface to 700 mb ridge extending east-west across central and northern Florida remains intact whereas the 500-300 mb ridge has completely eroded. The result is that lower level ridge will cause Isaias to slow its forward motion to northwestward at 6-8 kt during the next 36 hours. By 48 hours, the erosion of the ridge due to an approaching shortwave trough will allow the cyclone to move northward, followed by a gradual increase in forward speed toward the northeast on days 3-5. The new NHC track forecast was nudged slightly closer to the Florida east-central coast through 24 hours, with no significant changes made to the previous forecast after 36 hours. A combination of Isaias moving over the warm Gulfstream waters during the convective maximum period and increasing frictional convergence due to land interaction with Florida should lead to an increase in deep convection near and over the center, as shown by simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model. As a result, Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane status tonight, as shown by the HWRF and HMON model fields. By 36 hours and beyond, the global models are in good agreement that an approaching mid- to upper-level trough will increase southwesterly vertical wind shear, which should result in gradual weakening until Isais becomes an extratropical cyclone in about 96 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is closest to the HMON in 12 hours and closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models after 36 hours. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge will continue in portions of the northwest Bahamas tonight. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida east coast on Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin tonight. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Residents there should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas, and flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas, along the East Coast of the United States. Minor river flooding and isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia early next week. 5. Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of the United States East Coast from northeast Florida to South Carolina. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued tonight and Sunday as Isaias is expected to move northward near or over the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 25.1N 78.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 26.1N 79.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 27.4N 80.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 28.8N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 30.7N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 33.4N 79.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 37.4N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/1800Z 45.4N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/1800Z 50.7N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 19

2020-08-01 22:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 262 WTNT24 KNHC 012042 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM HALLANDALE BEACH TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA * LAKE OKEECHOBEE * VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 78.7W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 78.7W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 78.3W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.1N 79.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 27.4N 80.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 28.8N 80.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 30.7N 80.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 33.4N 79.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 37.4N 76.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 45.4N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 50.7N 57.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 78.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-08-01 22:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 012034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 800 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 The depression is barely a tropical cyclone. Most of the deep convection from the burst earlier in the day has now dissipated and the circulation appears to be losing definition. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on the ASCAT data from several hours ago. Since the cyclone is over cool waters and in a dry environment, significant deep convection is unlikely to return. Therefore, the depression will likely become a remnant low tonight and open into a trough shortly thereafter. The weak and shallow system has turned to the left recently, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 305/11 kt. A general west-northwest motion is expected until the system dissipates a couple of hundred miles north of the northern-most Cabo Verde Islands tonight or on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 19.2N 23.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 19.9N 25.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-08-01 22:32:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 012032 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 23.5W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 23.5W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 22.9W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.9N 25.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 23.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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