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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-07-31 22:47:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 312047 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020 2100 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 20.0W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 20.0W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 19.7W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.3N 21.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.5N 23.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.8N 25.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 20.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-07-31 17:01:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 311501 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 After a brief convective hiatus earlier this morning, a small burst of deep convection with cloud tops as cold as -80C to -85C have developed over the previously exposed low-level center. Dry downslope air coming off of Hispaniola wrapped into the center, eroding the inner-core convection somewhat. However, a surge of moist southwesterly inflow moving through the Windward Passage now appears to be fueling the recent increase in convection. The upper-level outflow has improved somewhat in the western semicircle but still remains restricted due to some modest southwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity has been lowered to 65 kt based on 700-mb flight-level winds of near 70 kt and an increase in the central pressure of 992 mb, which is based on a dropsonde report of 995 mb with 26-kt surface winds. Isaias is continuing on a steady northwestward motion of 305/14 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours or so as the hurricane rounds the southwestern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores High. A gradual turn to the north-northwest and north is expected by 48-60 hours due to a break in the ridge developing in response to a central U.S. shortwave trough digging into the southeastern United States. The timing and strength of this trough will determine how far west Isaias moves before the hurricane turns northward. The 06Z UKMET and and GFS have shifted westward, closer to the Florida coast, which is similar to the westward shift seen in the 00Z ECMWF model fields. By 72 hours, the hurricane is forecast to begin accelerating northeastward, possibly passing over eastern North Carolina by day 4 and across eastern New England on day 5. As a result of the westward shift in the latest model guidance, the new NHC forecast track has also been shifted farther west closer to the southeastern U.S. coast, and lies a little to the west of the consensus models TVCA and NOAA-HCCA. The westward shift in the track forecast has required the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for portions of the Florida east coast. Although some slight weakening has occurred, radar data from the aircraft and the Bahamas radar indicate about a 60-percent eyewall has formed in the northeastern semicircle, which is an indication that the cyclone is trying to reorganize. As a result, strengthening is still expected during the next day or so, especially tonight and Saturday morning during the convective maximum period when the hurricane will be moving over the Gulf Stream where SSTs are 30C or warmer and while the vertical remains reasonably low. Increasing southwesterly shear could cause a gradual decrease in intensity over the weekend. The new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is a little above the available model guidance out of respect for continuity. Key Messages: 1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect south and east-central Florida late Friday night, and the eastern Carolinas by early next week, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated minor river flooding is possible in the Carolinas early next week. 2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Bahamas today and Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible along portions of the Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Storm surge watches or warnings could be needed for part of this area this afternoon. 4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge beginning late this weekend along the northeastern Florida coast and spreading northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast through early next week. Interests along the entire U.S. east coast should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 21.7N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 23.0N 76.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 24.8N 78.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 26.3N 79.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 27.7N 79.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 29.2N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 31.6N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 36.4N 76.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 43.3N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-07-31 16:48:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 311447 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA- BREVARD COUNTY LINE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE... ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET * LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 74.5W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT.......180NE 90SE 50SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 90SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 74.5W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 74.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.0N 76.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.8N 78.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.3N 79.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.7N 79.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.2N 80.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 31.6N 79.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 36.4N 76.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 43.3N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 74.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 31/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-07-31 10:56:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 310855 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2020 Satellite images indicate that Isaias is maintaining a small central dense overcast, with a new burst of convection recently forming near the center. Earlier aircraft data indicated that the pressure had fallen to 990 mb, although there was little from the aircraft that supported more than the previous advisory's intensity of 70 kt. The hurricane has been moving between west-northwest and northwest during the last several hours, estimated at 305/15 now. Isaias should gradually turn to the north-northwest and north over the weekend as it moves around the western periphery of a weakening western Atlantic subtropical ridge. Guidance is in fairly good agreement over the first couple of days of the forecast, so little change is made at that time, other than a small westward adjustment near the Bahamas. After that time, there is a considerable spread, growing to over 700 miles, in the reliable models on how quickly Isaias moves northeastward near the east coast of the United States. The large spread appears to be related to both how strong the cyclone is by early next week and how much mid-level ridging remains near the Carolinas. There are no obvious reasons to choose either the fast GFS or slow ECMWF right now, so the official forecast will remain close to the previous one and the model consensus. It should be noted that given this large spread, the extended forecast could be subject to large speed/timing changes if either of those solutions become more likely. Strengthening is expected during the next day or so while the hurricane remains over the very warm waters near the Bahamas with reasonably low vertical shear. The forecast for the first 24 hours has been raised from earlier, at the top of the guidance spread. Increasingly southwesterly flow aloft should cause an increase in shear over the weekend, which is forecast by most of the guidance to lead to a gradual decrease in intensity. The details are not very clear at all, especially considering the track uncertainty, but there is a notable chance of a hurricane moving close to the U.S. East coast, so the forecast continues to show that scenario. Key Messages: 1. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South and east-Central Florida beginning late Friday night, and the eastern Carolinas by early next week, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. Isolated minor river flooding is possible in the Carolinas early next week. 2. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Bahamas today and Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings are in effect for these areas. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the Florida east coast beginning Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect. While storm surge watches are not currently needed for this area, they may be required later today if the forecast track shifts closer to the coast. Heavy rains associated with Isaias may begin to affect South Florida and east-Central Florida beginning late tonight, potentially resulting in isolated flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas. 4. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge late this weekend from the northeastern Florida coast and spreading northward along the remainder of the U.S. east coast through early next week. The details of the track and intensity forecast remain uncertain, and it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests along the entire U.S. east coast should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 20.9N 73.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 22.3N 75.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 24.0N 77.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 25.7N 78.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 27.3N 79.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 28.8N 79.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 30.6N 79.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 36.5N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 42.5N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-07-31 10:54:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 310853 TCMAT4 HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...ABACOS ISLANDS...BERRY ISLANDS...GRAND BAHAMAS ISLAND...AND BIMINI * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET * LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 73.3W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 90SE 50SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE 90SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 73.3W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 72.7W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.3N 75.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.7N 78.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.3N 79.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 28.8N 79.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.6N 79.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 36.5N 75.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 42.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 73.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 31/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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