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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-07-25 10:42:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 250842 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0900 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 58.7W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 58.7W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 57.8W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 10.7N 61.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.5N 65.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.1N 69.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 58.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-07-25 10:36:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 250836 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 0900 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD...TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO MESQUITE BAY TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS * MESQUITE BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA. INTERESTS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 95.8W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 95.8W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 95.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.9N 97.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.5N 98.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.0N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.5N 101.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 95.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-07-25 04:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 250249 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Hanna continues to strengthen over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite and Doppler radar images indicate that the inner core continues to become better organized and the outer bands are now more symmetrical around the center. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Hanna and have found maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 72 kt and maximum SFMR winds of 51 kt. Based on this data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt for this advisory. The aircraft has also reported a minimum pressure of 992 mb, which is a 8 mb drop from the flight earlier today. The NOAA aircraft data indicate that the center has moved a little south of west during the past few hours, and the storm is now a little south of the previous forecast track. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the central U.S. should cause the storm to continue to move generally westward, taking the center across the southern Texas coast tomorrow afternoon or early evening. After landfall, the storm is expected to turn to the west-southwest or southwest across extreme southern Texas and northern Mexico, and that motion should continue until the system dissipates. Hanna still has another 18 hours or so to strengthen as it remains in light wind shear conditions and over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters. Since the structure of the system continues to improve, it seems likely that Hanna will reach hurricane intensity before it makes landfall. The peak intensity could be higher than what is shown in the intensity forecast below since landfall is expected to occur between the 12 and 24 h forecast times. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, and Hanna is expected to dissipate on Monday over the rugged terrain of northern Mexico. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance for the next 24 h. Key Messages 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the Texas coast from Baffin Bay to Sargent, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Mesquite Bay, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area Saturday morning. 3. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 27.1N 94.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 27.1N 96.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 27.0N 97.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 26/1200Z 26.6N 99.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/0000Z 25.9N 101.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 27/1200Z 25.2N 102.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-07-25 04:48:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 250248 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 0300 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE MOUTH OF RIO GRANDE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO SARGENT TEXAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO MESQUITE BAY TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS * MESQUITE BAY TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA. INTERESTS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 94.8W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 45SE 15SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 94.8W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 94.5W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 27.1N 96.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.0N 97.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.6N 99.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.9N 101.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.2N 102.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 94.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-07-25 04:40:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250240 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 Although there has been a recent increase in deep convection in association with Gonzalo, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft continues to show that the tropical cyclone is poorly organized. The aircraft has not yet found winds to support tropical storm strength, however the advisory intensity will remain a possibly generous 35-kt until the aircraft completes its mission overnight. There is also some possibility that this recent convective burst could result in some short-term re-organization. However, with the system losing organization over the past day or so, it is becoming less likely that the small cyclone will be able to significantly recover due to the nearby dry mid-level environment. The updated NHC intensity forecast no longer calls for any re-strengthening, and Gonzalo could even become a tropical depression before reaching the Windward Islands. After that time, dry air and Gonzalo's close proximity to the coast of Venezuela are likely to cause the system to weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure. The NHC forecast now calls for dissipation by 60 h, but this could occur sooner. Gonzalo continues moving generally westward or 270/15 kt. The system is not expected to gain much latitude as it should continue moving westward to west-northwestward within the low-level easterly flow. The track guidance continues to trend southward and the NHC track forecast has again been shifted in that direction. The new track lies to the south of the consensus aids, closest to the GFS and UKMET ensemble means. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to a portion of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 10.0N 57.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 10.4N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 11.3N 62.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 12.2N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 12.7N 69.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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