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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-07-26 16:45:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 058 WTNT43 KNHC 261445 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Surface observations and WSR-88D radar data from Brownsville, Texas, indicate that Hanna continues to weaken as it moves farther inland. The radar shows a couple of fairly well-defined bands of convection over the eastern semicircle and tropical-storm-force wind gusts have been reported at observing sites along the U.S./Mexico border within the past couple of hours. The initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt, and is based primarily on recent observations and Doppler radar velocities. Hanna should continue to weaken quickly during the next 12-24 hours as it moves inland over Mexico. Hanna is forecast to become a tropical depression later today and dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by Monday night. Hanna is moving west-southwestward or 250/8 kt. The system is forecast to continue moving west-southwestward around the southern portion of a mid-level ridge over the central United States. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the various consensus aids. Key Messages 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to persist into this afternoon near and to the east of the center of Hanna. 2. Heavy rainfall from Hanna has already produced numerous reports of flash flooding across south Texas. Additional heavy rainfall will continue to cause life-threatening flash flooding over south Texas and northern Mexico, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas. 3. Storm surge along the Texas coast should continue to diminish today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 26.1N 99.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 25.5N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 27/1200Z 25.0N 101.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0000Z 24.9N 102.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-07-26 16:44:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 26 2020 705 WTNT23 KNHC 261444 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 1500 UTC SUN JUL 26 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE INTERESTS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 99.7W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 99.7W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 99.2W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.5N 100.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.0N 101.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.9N 102.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 99.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-07-26 10:53:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 260853 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Hanna continues to weaken as the center crosses the Rio Grande River from Texas into northeastern Mexico. Satellite imagery shows some warming of the cloud tops near the center, and WSR-88D radar data shows that only about a third of the previous eyewall is still present to the southeast of the center. The storm is generating a vigorous outer convective band over the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is reduced to 50 kt based mainly on Doppler radar winds of 50-65 kt at about 9000 ft to the northeast of the center, and it is possible that this is generous. The initial motion remains west-southwestward or 250/8 kt. The mid-level ridge over the central United States should continue to steer Hanna west-southwestward until dissipation, and the new NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous forecast. Hanna should rapidly weaken as it moves over northeastern Mexico, with the system expected to weaken to a depression in 12-18 h, if not sooner. The system is expected to dissipate completely over the rugged terrain of Mexico between 36-48 h. The radar signature of the storm has weakened to the point where there will be no more hourly position updates between advisories. Key Messages 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected to persist for several more hours near the center of Hanna, and for a few more hours in the warning area along the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico. 2. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. These rains will result in life-threatening flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river flooding. 3. Storm surge along the Texas coast should diminish today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 26.3N 98.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 26/1800Z 25.8N 99.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 27/0600Z 25.1N 101.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 27/1800Z 24.5N 102.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-07-26 10:51:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 26 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 260851 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 0900 UTC SUN JUL 26 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. INTERESTS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 98.9W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 98.9W AT 26/0900Z...INLAND AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 98.5W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 25.8N 99.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.1N 101.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 24.5N 102.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 98.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-07-25 22:59:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 252059 TCDAT3 Hurricane Hanna Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 NOAA Doppler weather radar data from Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas, along with reconnaissance data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Hanna has continued to strengthen this afternoon. A 30-nmi-wide eye remains distinct in the radar data, and dropsonde and 700-mb flight-level-level height data from the aircraft indicate that the central pressure has decreased to 973 mb. The aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 86 kt on its last outbound leg, which equates to about 77 kt at the surface. Coincident with the flight-level wind data were SFMR surface wind speeds of 80 kt. In addition, Doppler velocity values have been averaging close to 100 kt between 5000-6000 ft in the northern and northeastern eyewall, which converts to 80-kt surface wind speed estimates. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 80 kt. No further strengthening is anticipated before the center of Hanna's eye makes landfall along the south Texas coast in a few hours. Doppler radar and aircraft reconnaissance fixes indicate that Hanna has finally made the much anticipated turn toward the west-southwest, now showing an initial motion of 255/07 kt. A west-southwestward motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours, which will take Hanna well inland over south Texas, followed by eventual dissipation in about 48 h over over the mountains of northeastern Mexico. The new NHC track forecast remains unchanged from the previous advisory, and lies near the center of the tightly packed consensus models. Key Messages 1. Life-threatening storm surge will continue along portions of the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Sargent, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Hurricane conditions will continue within the Hurricane Warning area along the Texas coast through this evening. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of South Texas where Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. 3. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. These rains will result in life-threatening flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 26.8N 97.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 26.7N 98.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 26/1800Z 26.0N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 27/0600Z 25.5N 101.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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