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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 9

2020-07-23 22:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 232041 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR TOBAGO AND GRENADA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOBAGO * GRENADA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 49.4W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 49.4W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 48.8W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.0N 51.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.5N 53.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.1N 56.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.0N 59.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.0N 62.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.8N 65.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 14.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 49.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-07-23 16:50:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 231450 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is getting better organized, with a better-defined center located near the northeastern end of a broadly curved convective band. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 30 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the depression. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/8 kt. A mid-level ridge over the central United States is the predominant steering influence, and the global models forecast this ridge to build during the several days. This should cause the depression to turn more westward by 48-60 h and south of west after about 72 h. The track guidance is in good agreement with that scenario, and the new NHC forecast track, which has only minor adjustments from the previous track, lies near the various consensus models. The new forecast track has the center making landfall along the Texas coast between 48-60 h. The depression is in an environment of light shear and over warm sea surface temperatures, so at least slow strengthening is expected until landfall. The new intensity forecast, which lies a little below the intensity consensus, now calls for a peak intensity of 45 kt before landfall. Data from the Hurricane Hunter will give more details on whether the structure of the cyclone has improved or not, which will be incorporated into the next forecast cycle. Key Messages 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm watch is in effect. 2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Lower Texas Coast. These rains could result in flash flooding and minor river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 26.3N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 26.7N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 27.4N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 27.8N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 28.0N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 28.0N 98.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 26/1200Z 27.9N 99.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/1200Z 27.5N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 28/1200Z 27.0N 103.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-07-23 16:49:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 231449 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 90.7W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 90.7W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 90.3W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.7N 91.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.4N 93.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.8N 94.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 28.0N 96.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.0N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.9N 99.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 27.5N 101.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 27.0N 103.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 90.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 13

2020-07-23 16:47:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231447 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 The intensity of Douglas has leveled off in the overnight hours with the eyewall convection weakening, but the eye temperatures becoming a lot warmer, suggesting that the system has become a little more steady state. The wind speed is kept at 105 kt, which nearly matches the latest CIMSS satellite consensus (SATCON). The cyclone has less than a day over warm water left to intensify before it encounters SSTs less than 26C. Douglas should only slowly weaken thereafter during the next few days due to the cooler waters along the predicted track since the vertical shear should remain low through Saturday. As the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, while the SSTs increase, so does the shear, and thus a continued weakening is forecast. Model guidance is consistent from the last forecast, and no significant changes were made to the NHC wind speed prediction. Douglas has been moving a little faster to the west-northwest, or 290/17. A large mid-level ridge over the eastern and central Pacific should continue to steer the hurricane on this general course and speed for the next couple of days, with some deceleration and a westward turn by late in the weekend. While the guidance remains in very good agreement, the only significant change to note is that this forecast is a bit faster than the previous one, but not as fast as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 13.6N 135.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 14.5N 138.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.8N 141.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 17.0N 144.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 18.1N 147.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 19.1N 150.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 19.8N 153.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 20.7N 159.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 21.5N 165.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 13

2020-07-23 16:45:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 231445 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 135.9W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..165NE 135SE 135SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 135.9W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 135.1W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 138.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.8N 141.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 144.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.1N 147.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.1N 150.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.8N 153.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.7N 159.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 165.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 135.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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