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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-07-23 10:41:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230841 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 47.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 47.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 46.4W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.1N 48.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.9N 53.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.2N 60.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.0N 63.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 14.8N 68.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 16.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 47.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-07-23 10:40:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230840 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Satellite images and surface synoptic observations suggest that the depression has not strengthened thus far, although recent images show some increase in deep convection near the estimated center. The initial intensity estimate remains at 25 kt in agreement with surface data over the Gulf. The cyclone should remain in a relatively moist, low-shear environment during the next day or so. However, since the system is not well organized, only slow strengthening is forecast until the center reaches the coast. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper range of the model guidance at this time. The center is not well-defined and the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 290/8 kt. This is more or less consistent with observations from NOAA data buoy 42001 over the central Gulf. A continued west-northwestward track is expected over the next day or so followed by a slight bend toward the west in response to some building of a mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one but not quite as fast as the latest dynamical model consensus. Key Messages 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. 2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana and southern Texas. These rains could result in flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 26.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 26.4N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 27.1N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 27.7N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 28.0N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 28.2N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...ON COAST 72H 26/0600Z 28.2N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/0600Z 28.0N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/0600Z 28.0N 102.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-07-23 10:39:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 230839 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 90.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 90.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 89.6W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.4N 91.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.1N 92.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.7N 94.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 28.0N 95.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 28.2N 97.0W...ON COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 28.2N 98.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 28.0N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 28.0N 102.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 90.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 11

2020-07-23 04:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230243 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 Douglas's cloud pattern has improved quickly since the last advisory, with an eye becoming more distinct within an area of cold cloud tops and expanding outflow in all quadrants. The initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt. This is in agreement with the latest SATCON estimate and a blend of the latest ADT and SATCON estimates. The hurricane has another 24 hours or so over SSTs above 28C with very low vertical shear, and rapid intensification appears to be underway. Given the current satellite trends and the SHIPS RII showing a 50 percent chance of a 30-kt intensity increase in 24 h, the NHC forecast has been increased above the guidance in the short term, showing the system peaking at 110 kt in 24 h, although timing the peak intensity during rapid strengthening is quite difficult. By 36 h, SSTs cool along the forecast track but the shear remains low, which should result in gradual weakening. Late in the period, an increase in shear and a drier airmass should result in continued gradual weakening. Douglas is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, and all interests there should monitor forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. The initial motion estimate is now toward the west-northwest or 285/15. Douglas should continue on a general west-northwestward motion for the next 72 hours under the influence of an expansive mid-level ridge extending across much of the central and eastern North Pacific. The track will turn more toward the west late in the period as Douglas moves near the Hawaiian Islands. The new NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope close to the TVCE multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 12.5N 132.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 13.4N 134.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.6N 137.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.9N 140.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 17.1N 143.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 18.2N 146.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 19.2N 149.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 20.3N 155.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 21.0N 162.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-07-23 04:42:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230242 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 Surface observations and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the area of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico has developed a closed circulation and a well-defined center. In addition, recent satellite images show an area of deep convection expanding over the center. Based on those observations, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Eight. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on the earlier reconnaissance data. The initial motion is an uncertain west-northwestward at 5 kt. A subtropical ridge to the northeast of the depression should cause it to continue moving in that general direction through Friday as it tracks across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A slight turn to the left is expected Friday night and Saturday as a ridge builds to the north of the system, taking the center of cyclone across the Texas coast and then inland over southern Texas. The models are in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus models. The depression is expected to be in generally light to moderate wind shear conditions, in a fairly moist environment, and over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days, so some strengthening seems likely. However, since the depression is still in its formative stage, the rate of strengthening should be gradual. After the storm crosses the coast, steady weakening should commence. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA guidance. Key Messages 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. 2. The depression is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana and southern Texas. These rains could result in flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 25.9N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 26.3N 89.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 27.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 27.9N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 28.5N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 28.7N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/0000Z 28.8N 98.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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