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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-07-24 10:47:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 240847 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 140.3W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 140.3W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 139.5W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.7N 142.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.9N 145.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.0N 148.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.9N 151.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.5N 154.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 157.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 22.0N 163.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 22.4N 170.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 140.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP2...WMO HEADER WTPA22 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-07-24 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 240842 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Gonzalo's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours. The cyclone continues to produce an area of deep convection, although quite shapeless, with very cold cloud tops. A compromise of the subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB along with an earlier SATCON estimate of 55 kt yields an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft scheduled to investigate the storm later this afternoon will provide a more precise intensity estimate. The statistical-dynamical intensity guidance as well as the deterministic models all show Gonzalo strengthening as it approaches the southern Windward Islands. The HWRF, Decay SHIPS and the LGEM are the only guidance indicating a hurricane around the 36 hour period. Afterward, Gonzalo is forecast to move into a more inhibiting thermodynamic environment over the weekend. Accordingly, the intensity forecast calls for weakening on Sunday as Gonzalo enters the eastern Caribbean sea and dissipation in 96 hours, or sooner as a couple of the large-scale models suggest. The intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory through 36 hours, indicating a hurricane approaching and moving over the southern Windward Islands, and a faster weakening trend afterward, out of respect to the global model's prediction. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/12 kt and Gonzalo is being steered by a building subtropical ridge to the system's north. The cyclone is expected to increase in forward speed toward the west and west-northwest through the entire period. The NHC official forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on the various consensus aids. Key Messages 1. The risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend continues to increase, however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will be when it moves across the islands. 2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warning and Watches are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 10.0N 51.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 10.3N 53.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 11.0N 56.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 12.0N 59.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 13.0N 63.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 13.7N 66.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 14.0N 69.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-07-24 10:41:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 240841 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. LUCIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 51.8W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 51.8W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 51.2W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.3N 53.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.0N 56.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.0N 59.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.0N 63.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.7N 66.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.0N 69.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 51.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-07-24 10:34:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240834 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Satellite imagery shows well-defined convective banding features over the eastern and southern portions of the circulation with some cooling of the cloud tops. This suggests that the associated thunderstorm activity is becoming more vigorous. However, surface observations over the Gulf and a scatterometer pass from a few hours ago indicate that the system has not strengthened further at this time. The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm later this morning and they should provide a good estimate of Hanna's intensity. The storm has an impressive upper-level anticyclonic outflow structure and should remain in a low shear environment until it reaches the coast. Therefore strengthening is likely prior to landfall and the NHC intensity forecast is near the model high end of the intensity model suite. The storm has moved a little faster toward the west-northwest over the past several hours, and the initial motion estimate is 290/8 kt. There is very little change to the official track forecast or reasoning from the previous cycle. A gradual turn toward the west is likely in 12 hours or so as a mid-level ridge to the north of Hanna builds a bit. The forecast track takes the center inland over Texas within the tropical storm warning area on Saturday. This is in good agreement with the dynamical model consensus and the latest ECMWF model solution. Key Messages 1. Hanna is forecast to strengthen and it is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 2. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Texas. These rains could result in flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 26.7N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 27.1N 93.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 27.3N 95.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 27.3N 97.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 27.2N 98.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/1800Z 26.5N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 27/0600Z 26.0N 101.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-07-24 10:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 240833 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 92.4W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 92.4W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 92.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.1N 93.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 27.3N 95.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 27.3N 97.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.2N 98.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.5N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 26.0N 101.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 92.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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