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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-07-24 04:58:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 240257 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 The system continues to organize with curved bands becoming better established around the center. The cyclone certainly has the appearance of a tropical storm, and just minutes ago the NOAA Hurricane Hunters found winds to support upgrading the system to a 35-kt tropical storm. Data from the aircraft also show that the minimum pressure has dropped to 1002 mb, indicating that the system is on a developing trend. Hanna is moving fairly slowly to the west-northwest, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 285/6 kt. This west-northwest motion should continue on Friday, but a turn to the west is expected by Friday night as a subtropical ridge strengthens to the north of the cyclone. This steering flow should take the center of the storm across the southern Texas coast in 36 to 48 hours. After landfall, the storm is forecast to turn south of west across extreme southern Texas and northern Mexico. The models have shifted southward again this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. Additional strengthening seems quite likely until the storm makes landfall since it is expected to remain over the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters and in generally low wind shear conditions. After landfall, steady weakening should commence, and the cyclone should dissipate over the rugged terrain of northern Mexico in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the previous one and at the high end of the guidance given the system's well organized structure and favorable environment. Due to the southward shift in the track forecast, the tropical storm warning has been extended southward from Port Mansfield to the Mouth of the Rio Grande. Tropical Storm Hanna is the earliest 8th storm on record. The previous record was in 2005 when Harvey formed on August 3rd. Key Messages 1. Hanna is forecast to strengthen and it is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 2. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana, southern Texas, and northern Mexico. These rains could result in flash flooding and isolated minor-to-moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 26.2N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 26.6N 92.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 27.1N 94.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 27.2N 96.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 27.2N 97.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/1200Z 27.0N 99.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 27/0000Z 26.5N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-07-24 04:56:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 990 WTNT23 KNHC 240256 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 91.4W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 91.4W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.6N 92.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.1N 94.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 27.2N 96.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.2N 97.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.0N 99.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.5N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 91.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-07-24 04:44:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240243 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 Douglas remains a well organized hurricane in visible and infrared satellite imagery. The 15-nmi-wide eye remains very distinct and the surrounding cloud tops have cooled since the previous advisory. Although not evident in conventional satellite imagery, a recent AMSR-2 microwave satellite image showed evidence of concentric eyewalls. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 6.0 (115 kt) and recent UW/CIMSS ADT estimates have been creeping upward, and now also close to T6.0. Based on these estimates, the initial wind speed has been raised to 115 kt, making Douglas a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Douglas has likely reached its peak intensity as it will be moving over cooler SSTs during the next day or so. Although the predicted track of the hurricane will bring it over warmer waters when Douglas approaches the Hawaiian Islands, vertical shear is forecast to increase at that time. This is expected to result in continued gradual weakening, however Douglas is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to Hawaii. Despite the slight increase in the initial intensity, the updated NHC wind speed forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory through 36 hours, and then follows the intensity consensus guidance thereafter. Douglas continues moving quickly west-northwestward or 295/16 kt. The hurricane is forecast to remain on this heading with some slight reduction in forward speed during the next day or so as it remains to the south of a large mid-level ridge. After that time, Douglas is forecast to turn westward to the south of another strong mid-level ridge the is predicted to build well north of the Hawaiian Islands later in the weekend. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies just south of the various consensus aids out of respect of the ECMWF and its ensemble mean which lie along the southern edge of the track envelope. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning Saturday night or Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. Watches could be issued on Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.9N 138.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.9N 141.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 17.1N 144.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 18.2N 147.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 19.2N 150.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 20.0N 153.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 20.5N 156.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 21.3N 161.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 21.8N 168.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-07-24 04:43:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 240242 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 138.8W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 138.8W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 138.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 141.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.1N 144.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.2N 147.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.2N 150.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.0N 153.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.5N 156.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.3N 161.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 21.8N 168.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 138.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-07-24 04:40:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 240240 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 After ingesting a hefty portion of dry high statically stable air this morning, Gonzalo appears to be on the comeback trail. Enhanced infrared BD-curve imagery shows that a small Central Dense Overcast with cloud tops of -80C is redeveloping over the surface center. A compromise of the available subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates supports maintaining 50 kt for this advisory. This morning's upper air sounding from Barbados revealed a very dry, high statically stable atmosphere with a mean RH of 23 percent and a CAPE of only 327 J/Kg. Consequently, Gonzalo will be moving into a rather harsh thermodynamic environment over the weekend. As a result, the NHC forecast calls for weakening beyond the 48 hour period as it enters the eastern Caribbean sea and dissipation well south of Hispaniola at day 5, or sooner as a few of the global models suggest. The intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory through 48 hours, indicating a hurricane approaching and moving over the southern Windward Islands, and a faster weakening trend beyond day 2, similar to a consensus of the large-scale models. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/12 kt within the stiff mid-tropospheric steering flow provided by an anchored subtropical ridge to the cyclone's north. The song remains the same, with Gonzalo expected to speed up toward the west and west-northwest through the entire period. The NHC official forecast is based on a blend of the various consensus aids and is down the middle of the tightly clustered guidance. Key Messages 1. The risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend continues to increase, however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will be when it moves across the islands. 2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect for some of the islands, and additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or early Friday. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 9.9N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 10.2N 52.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 10.7N 55.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 11.5N 58.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 12.3N 61.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 13.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 13.9N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 14.4N 73.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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