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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-07-25 04:39:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 250239 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0300 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 57.1W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 57.1W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 56.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 10.4N 59.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.3N 62.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.2N 66.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.7N 69.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 57.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-07-24 22:59:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 242059 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Satellite imagery, along with Doppler radar data from Houston and Corpus Christi, indicate that Hanna has been getting better organized over the past several hours. Curved banding features have improved and a banding eye has developed in the radar data. The NOAA reconnaissance aircraft reported SFMR winds of 43-45 kt on its last outbound leg and a ship D5DE5 just east of the center reported an elevated wind speed of 51 kt at 1400Z. Based on these data, along with an estimated pressure of 999 mb from surrounding oil rigs, the initial intensity has been conservatively increased to 45 kt. Reconnaissance and radar fix data indicate that Hanna has turned westward, and the motion is now 275/09 kt. Hanna is forecast to move generally westward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours, with landfall expected along the south-central coast of Texas within the hurricane warning area Saturday afternoon or early evening. The new NHC forecast track is just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to an average of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. Given the improved internal structure noted in radar imagery, along with SSTs of at least 30 deg C and an impressive outflow pattern, increased frictional convergence as the cyclone moves closer to the coast and the approaching nocturnal convective maximum should support additional strengthening, and Hanna is now forecast to become a hurricane prior to making landfall. The NHC forecast of 65 kt in 24 hours is between the latest HWRF model run, which brings Hanna to 70 kt just prior to landfall, and the intensity consensus models HCCA and IVCN, which are just below hurricane strength. Due to Hanna forecast to reach hurricane strength, Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings have been issued for portions of the Texas coast. Key Messages 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the Texas coast from Baffin Bay to Sargent, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the Texas coast from Baffin Bay to Mesquite Bay, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area Saturday morning. 3. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 27.3N 94.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 27.4N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 27.3N 97.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 27.0N 98.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 26/1800Z 26.6N 100.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 27/0600Z 25.6N 102.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-07-24 22:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 242050 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BAFFIN BAY NORTHWARD TO MESQUITE BAY TEXAS. A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BAFFIN BAY TO SARGENT, TEXAS, INCLUDING CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY... SAN ANTONIO BAY AND MATAGORDA BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO SARGENT TEXAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO MESQUITE BAY TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS * MESQUITE BAY TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 94.3W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 94.3W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 93.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 27.4N 95.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 27.3N 97.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.0N 98.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.6N 100.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.6N 102.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 94.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-07-24 22:37:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 242037 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Gonzalo earlier this afternoon and found it to very poorly organized. The aircraft even reported seeing multiple low-level swirls which is surprising given the small size of the cyclone. The highest flight-level winds measured by the plane were 41 kt while the highest believable SFMR values were right around 35 kt. Based on that data, Gonzalo's intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. Small systems like Gonzalo are notorious for quick changes in structure and intensity, both up and down. Therefore, despite its current downswing, it is too soon to say for sure that Gonzalo will not restrengthen to some degree before it reaches the southern Windward Islands. That said, confidence in the intensity forecast is a little higher now that we have better data to base the forecast on and it does not seem likely that Gonzalo will overcome the dry air that is currently inhibiting its development. Given the current structure of the tropical storm, the NHC intensity forecast has been lowered significantly, but still allows for some slight restrengthening during the next 24 h. The new forecast is much closer to the intensity consensus, below only the HWRF model which does not appear to have a realistic initialization. Once Gonzalo reaches the eastern Caribbean, weakening is anticipated and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, if not sooner. Gonzalo has sped westward all day with a motion near 270/16 kt. The guidance continues to insist that Gonzalo will gain a little latitude in the near future, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is still forecast for the next few days. The NHC track forecast has again been shifted southward, but now lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and very near the various track consensus aids. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions across portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 10.0N 55.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 10.4N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 11.4N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 12.2N 64.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 13.1N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 13.4N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-07-24 22:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 242036 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO AND GRENADA. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CANCELED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 55.6W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 55.6W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 54.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 10.4N 58.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 11.4N 61.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.2N 64.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 13.1N 67.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.4N 71.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 55.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 25/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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