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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-07-23 04:42:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230242 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.6W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.6W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 131.9W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.4N 134.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.6N 137.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 140.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.1N 143.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.2N 146.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.2N 149.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.3N 155.5W...NEAR HAWAII MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.0N 162.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 132.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-07-23 04:41:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 230241 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 88.2W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 88.2W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 87.9W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.3N 89.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.0N 90.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.9N 92.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 28.5N 95.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.7N 96.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 28.8N 98.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 88.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-07-23 04:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 230235 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 A series of earlier microwave passes over Gonzalo reveal a small eye feature beneath a relatively ragged, Central Dense Overcast with associated -75.5C cloud tops. Based on the evidence of the small eye and a blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt for advisory. The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as the previous advisory with a higher than normal degree of uncertainty in the latter half of the period as the cyclone moves through the Caribbean. Gonzalo should remain in an environment of relatively low shear, although the impacts of dry, stable air and large-scale subsidence could hamper further intensification in a few days. It's worth noting that the ECMWF Ensemble model is showing a pretty significant low- to mid-level easterly surge that spreads just to the north of the cyclone's forecast track and over the northeastern Caribbean in a couple of days. This predicted event could possibly curtail strengthening at that time. On the other hand, with the exception of the ECMWF, the global models now show the cyclone maintaining tropical storm strength while moving into the eastern Caribbean. The official intensity forecast is adjusted slightly above the previous forecast, hedging toward the HFIP HCCA consensus and the IVCN multi-model intensity aid solutions. It should also be noted that the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. The initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/10 kt. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy. Gonzalo is on the south side of a low- to mid-level tropospheric ridge, and this feature should steer the storm generally westward at a faster forward speed for the next few days. After that time, a motion toward the west-northwest is expected. The NHC track forecast is nudged a bit to the north of the previous one and is close to the various consensus aids. Interests in the Windward Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch is now issued for Barbados. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is expected to move near or over the southern Windward Islands this weekend, and could bring direct impacts from winds and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude and timing of those impacts, interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 9.9N 45.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 10.0N 47.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 10.2N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 10.6N 52.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 11.2N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 11.8N 58.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 12.6N 61.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 14.3N 67.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 15.6N 73.1W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-07-23 04:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 230233 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BARBADOS. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 45.9W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 45.9W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 45.4W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.0N 47.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 10.2N 50.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.6N 52.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 11.2N 55.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.8N 58.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.6N 61.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 14.3N 67.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 15.6N 73.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 45.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 23/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-07-22 22:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 222039 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 Douglas's structure has continued to improve, with a more well-defined eye becoming apparent in visible and microwave satellite images. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range from T4.0/65 kt and T5.0/90 kt, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT is 4.0. Douglas's initial intensity is therefore raised to 70 kt as a blend of the satellite estimates. The hurricane has begun to gain some latitude, and the initial motion is just north of due west, or 275/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed since earlier this morning, with a persistent mid-tropospheric ridge to Douglas's north expected to be the main driving force for the entire 5-day forecast period. Douglas is forecast to turn west-northwestward by this evening, and then maintain that heading with some increase in forward speed through day 4 as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands. A bend back to the west is then expected at the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast lies right along the forecast path from the previous advisory through 60 hours, although it has been shifted slightly north on days 3-5 based on an overall shift of the guidance envelope at those times. Confidence in the track forecast at this stage is rather high. Intensity-wise, low shear and sea surface temperature of 28-29C favor continued strengthening, potentially at a rapid rate for the next 24 hours. SHIPS, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble all bring the intensity near or at major hurricane strength in 24-36 hours, which qualifies as rapid intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is in line with these models and lies near the upper bound of the guidance envelope given the favorable conditions. Some weakening is expected to begin by 48 hours due to cooler waters, but since vertical shear is not expected to increase until around day 4, the weakening rate is likely to be gradual. This forecast increases the chance that Douglas could maintain hurricane intensity as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands, and all interests on the islands should monitor the forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 12.1N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 15.1N 138.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 16.4N 141.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 17.6N 145.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 18.7N 148.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 20.0N 154.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII 120H 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR HAWAII $$ Forecaster Berg
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