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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-07-24 16:59:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 241459 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Hanna Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2020 Reports from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft this morning and nearby ship D5DY4 indicate that Hanna has strengthened a little. However, the aircraft data also showed that Hanna's center had moved or reformed a little farther north near the northern edge of the convective cloud mass. A partial SSMI/S pass around 1231Z suggested that a mid-level eye feature could be forming, but it also possible that a dry slot may be intruding into the cloud shield from the northwest and west. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on aircraft SFMR surface winds of 38-40 kt, and the 1200Z D5DY5 ship report of 48 kt at 89 meters elevation, which reduces to a 38-kt 10-meter wind speed. Even with the earlier northwestward jump in the center position, reconnaissance and microwave satellite data indicate that Hanna's motion is still west-northwestward or 285/08 kt. There remains no significant change to the previous official track forecast or reasonings over the past couple of days. The latest NHC model guidance remains in good agreement that mid-level ridge will build to the north and northwest of Hanna over the next couple of days, resulting in the cyclone turning westward by tonight and on Saturday. It should then turn west-southwestward Saturday night and Sunday. The new NHC forecast track continues to show the center making landfall along the south-central coast of Texas within the tropical storm warning area Saturday afternoon or evening, which is in good agreement with the various consensus models. Hanna's convective cloud shield remains very asymmetrical with the bulk of the convection confined to the southern semicircle despite the otherwise symmetrical and expanding upper-level outflow pattern. More recently, some deep convection has developed near the center and the aforementioned possible mid-level eye feature. Hanna is forecast to remain in relatively low vertical wind shear regime and over SSTs of 30C or more, a combination that typically favors significant intensification. However, nearby dry mid-level air noted in 1200Z soundings from Corpus Christi and Brownsville has been eroding and preventing convection from developing in the northwest quadrant and near the center, which has inhibited strengthening over the past couple of days despite the low shear conditions. The latest global model guidance shows the dry air mixing out in about 24 h just prior to landfall, which should allow for at least gradual strengthening until landfall occurs in about 30 h or so. However, if an eyewall forms during the next 12 h, then it is possible that Hanna could be near 60 kt when it makes landfall. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus intensity forecasts. Key Messages 1. Hanna is forecast to strengthen and it is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 2. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Texas. These rains could result in flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 27.2N 93.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 27.5N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 27.4N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 27.3N 97.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 26/1200Z 27.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 27/0000Z 26.3N 100.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 27/1200Z 25.7N 101.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-07-24 16:58:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 241458 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 Gonzalo continues to produce bursts of deep convection, especially in the southeast quadrant, but has not become any better organized overall since the last advisory. Microwave imagery overnight indicated the low-level structure of Gonzalo is still largely intact, but this has not translated into better convective organization. ASCAT data valid shortly after 12Z revealed that Gonzalo has accelerated west faster than anticipated and has not strengthened. In fact the strongest winds in the ASCAT data were only 30-35 kt. The resolution of ASCAT likely limits its ability to sample the actual max winds of small storms like Gonzalo, but it is another indication that the cyclone has not strengthened and could be weakening. The initial intensity for this advisory is set at 45 kt, based primarily on the latest TAFB Dvorak fix and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft scheduled to investigate the storm this afternoon will provide a more information about Gonzalo's intensity and structure. Due primarily to the adjusted initial position, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted a fair amount west and south of the previous advisory. Overall Gonzalo is still forecast to move generally westward or west-northwestward through the period, steered by the subtropical ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast lies between the old forecast, adjusted for the new initial position, and the HFIP Corrected Consensus. The intensity guidance is generally lower than it has been for the last day or so, and none of the operational models forecast Gonzalo to reach hurricane strength. Unfortunately, small storms like Gonzalo are often subject to large swings in intensity, up or down, and that aspect of the forecast remains highly uncertain, even though the spread in the guidance is not particularly high. The NHC forecast has been adjusted only slightly lower for this cycle and is now above all of the guidance at the time the system is forecast to pass through the Windward Islands. A larger adjustment could be made later today if the most recent model trends continue, or if the recon mission finds that Gonzalo is even weaker than the current estimates. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions across portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warning and Watches are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 10.0N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 10.5N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 11.4N 59.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 12.4N 62.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 13.0N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 13.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 14.0N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-07-24 16:57:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 241457 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 1500 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * ST. LUCIA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 54.2W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 54.2W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 53.3W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.4N 59.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.4N 62.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.0N 65.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.7N 69.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 54.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-07-24 16:56:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 241456 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 1500 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 93.2W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 93.2W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 92.8W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.5N 94.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 27.4N 96.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.3N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 27.0N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.3N 100.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.7N 101.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 93.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 24/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-07-24 10:48:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240848 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 Douglas continues to look impressive in satellite images, with a clear eye and symmetric convection in all quadrants. Broad outflow channels extend about 300 n mi in every direction from the cyclone, indicative of nearly zero wind shear. The latest Dvorak CI values from TAFB and SAB, as well as the recent UW/CIMSS ADT estimates are all T6.0, which supports keeping the initial advisory intensity at 115 kt. Douglas is crossing the 26 C isotherm, and will continue to move over relatively cooler waters of about 25 C over the next day or so. This should cause the cyclone to begin weakening very soon. In about 48 h, Douglas is forecast to move back across the 26 C isotherm, but at the same time the cyclone is forecast to begin encountering a drier, more stable airmass and increasing vertical wind shear. Despite the warmer waters, these other more hostile environmental factors are expected to cause Douglas to gradually weaken for the remainder of the 5-day forecast period. The latest NHC forecast is changed little from the previous advisory, and is very close to a blend of the corrected consensus HCCA and the IVCN/ICON consensus aids. Douglas is still moving quickly west-northwestward or 295/16 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should keep moving the cyclone in the same general direction over the next couple of days. Over the weekend, as Douglas approaches the Hawaiian Islands, a more westward motion is forecast as another ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. There is some notable spread in the model guidance now compared to yesterday as Douglas approaches the Hawaiian Islands. The faster and southernmost guidance from the ECMWF takes the center of the cyclone over the big island, while the northernmost GFS and HWRF take the cyclone just north of the island chain. The other guidance, including the track consensus aids lie in between those solutions. The latest NHC forecast was nudged slightly northward between 48 h and 96 h, but still remains south of the consensus aids during those time periods. Otherwise, the NHC forecast was little changed from the previous one. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Douglas. Future information on this system can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1500 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2 and WMO header WTPA22 PHFO. For information specific to the Hawaiian Islands, users should continue to consult products from the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii, at www.weather.gov/hfo. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning Saturday night or Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. Watches could be issued on Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 15.7N 140.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 16.7N 142.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 17.9N 145.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 19.0N 148.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 19.9N 151.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 20.5N 154.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII 72H 27/0600Z 21.0N 157.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR HAWAII 96H 28/0600Z 22.0N 163.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 22.4N 170.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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