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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-07-24 04:39:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 240238 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TOBAGO * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 50.6W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 50.6W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 10.2N 52.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.7N 55.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.5N 58.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 12.3N 61.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 13.3N 64.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.9N 67.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 14.4N 73.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 50.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-07-23 22:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 232047 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the depression continues to become better organized, with the center near the eastern edge of a large and broadly curved convective area, with a second curved band to the east. Several subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have increased to 35 kt since the last advisory. However, surface observations, scatterometer data, and data from an earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission show a large area of 25-30 kt winds south and east of the center, and no 35-kt winds to justify an upgrade at this time. Thus, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this evening, and the current expectation is that they will find it is a tropical storm. The center meandered a bit today, possibly due to reformation. However, the system now seems to have resumed a west-northwestward motion of 285/7 kt. A mid-level ridge over the central United States is the predominant steering influence, and the global models forecast this ridge to build somewhat during the next several days. This should cause the depression to turn westward by 36-48 h and south of west after about 60 h. The track guidance remains in good agreement with that scenario, although there has been a slight southward shift in the guidance envelope and the consensus models. The new NHC forecast track is also shifted a little southward and has the center making landfall along the Texas coast in about 48 h. The depression is in an environment of light shear with good anticyclonic outflow, and it will be over warm sea surface temperatures until landfall. This should allow steady strengthening. The new NHC intensity forecast has been increased to show a peak intensity of 50 kt just before landfall, followed by steady weakening and eventually dissipation after landfall. The new intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus. The aircraft and scatterometer data show that the strongest winds in the cyclone are currently occurring about 70-90 n mi from the center. This has caused the forecast wind radii to be expanded, and as a result a Tropical Storm Warning is needed for portions of the Texas coast. Key Messages 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and it is likely to bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Texas coast, where a tropical storm warning has been issued. 2. The tropical cyclone is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of Louisiana, southern Texas, and northern Mexico. These rains could result in flash flooding and isolated minor-to-moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 26.1N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 26.5N 91.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 27.1N 93.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 27.5N 95.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 27.6N 97.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 27.5N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 26/1800Z 27.3N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 27/1800Z 27.0N 102.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 14

2020-07-23 22:43:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 232042 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020 Visible satellite images show that Douglas is quite a powerful hurricane. The eye has become more crisp during the day, and infrared data also show that the eyewall convection has deepened. The initial wind speed is raised to 110 kt, which matches a blend of the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates. Douglas is beginning to move across the typical cool SST gradient of the eastern Pacific, implying that the hurricane is probably near its peak intensity. The cyclone should only slowly weaken on Friday and Saturday due to cooler waters along the predicted track and the vertical shear remaining low. As the hurricane approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, the SSTs increase but so does the shear. Since the shear generally dominates over marginally warm waters, a continued weakening is forecast. However, almost all of the guidance shows Douglas near hurricane strength as it moves close to Hawaii. The model guidance remains consistent, and no significant changes were made to the NHC wind speed prediction. Douglas continues moving fairly quickly toward the west-northwest. A large mid-level ridge over the eastern and central Pacific should continue to steer the hurricane on this general course and speed for the next couple of days, with some deceleration and a westward turn by late in the weekend. The guidance is a little more divergent than the previous cycle, with a subtle northward model trend at longer range due to a weaker ridge forecast north of Hawaii, though the ECMWF and its ensembles have shifted a little southward. Given these mixed signals in the guidance, very little change is made to the previous NHC track forecast, and the new official forecast lies on the southwest side of the model envelope. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. Watches could be issued on Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 14.1N 137.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 15.0N 139.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.2N 142.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 17.4N 145.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 18.5N 149.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 19.4N 152.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 20.1N 154.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII 96H 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 21.5N 167.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 14

2020-07-23 22:42:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 232042 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 137.3W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 137.3W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 136.5W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.0N 139.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.2N 142.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.4N 145.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 149.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.4N 152.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.1N 154.9W...NEAR HAWAII MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 21.5N 167.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 137.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-07-23 22:42:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 232041 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Thu Jul 23 2020 Scatterometer data received just after the release of the previous advisory only showed winds of 40-45 kt, but given Gonzalo's small size, it's unlikely that the resolution of the instrument was able to capture the maximum winds. Even correcting for that, Gonzalo's winds were lowered to 50 kt on the 2 PM intermediate advisory, and that still looks good now with satellite intensity estimates ranging from 35 kt to 55 kt. Structure-wise, deep convection has redeveloped on top of Gonzalo's center, so the storm is not ready to give up its fight quite yet. There is still greater-than-normal uncertainty in Gonzalo's forecast intensity due to its small size and how it will behave in an environment of relatively light shear and warm sea surface temperatures counterbalanced by a lot of dry air. The statistical and dynamical hurricane models continue to show strengthening, while several of the global models, in particular the ECMWF and UKMET, still show Gonzalo weakening and opening up into a trough near or after it passes the Windward Islands. Based on the lower initial intensity and the latest guidance, the new official forecast has been lowered slightly, but it still brings Gonzalo to the hurricane threshold in 36-48 hours. Either way, Gonzalo's small size makes it susceptible to short-term changes in intensity that cannot be reflected in the official forecast. There is more confidence that weakening will occur after Gonzalo moves over the Caribbean Sea, with even the GFS showing the system becoming a trough. Given that, dissipation is now shown in the forecast at day 5. Gonzalo's initial motion is westward, or 275/11 kt. There has been no change in the track forecast reasoning, with Gonzalo expected to accelerate toward the west and west-northwest through the forecast period. The track guidance is fairly tightly clustered, showing Gonzalo's center crossing somewhere through the Windward Islands between 48-60 hours. Some of the models shifted northward a bit on this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has therefore been nudged in that direction close to the multi-model consensus aids, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble. However, users should not focus on these relatively small shifts in the forecast track from cycle to cycle, and for the Windward Islands in particular, consider that 48-60 hour forecast points can be off by an average of 60-80 nm. Key Messages 1. The risk of wind and rain impacts from Gonzalo in portions of the southern Windward Islands this weekend continues to increase, however there is significant uncertainty in how strong Gonzalo will be when it moves across the islands. 2. Despite the uncertainty in Gonzalo's future intensity, hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches are currently in effect some of the islands, and additional watches or warnings could be required tonight or early Friday. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 9.8N 49.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 10.0N 51.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 10.5N 53.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 11.1N 56.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 12.0N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 13.0N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 13.8N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 14.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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