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Hurricane Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-07-25 22:54:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 252053 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 2100 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS * PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA. INTERESTS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 97.2W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 97.2W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 96.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 26.7N 98.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.0N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.5N 101.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 97.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 26/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Remnants of Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-07-25 22:37:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 252036 TCMAT2 REMNANTS OF GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 63.0W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 63.0W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 62.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 63.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-07-25 16:58:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 251458 TCDAT3 Hurricane Hanna Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020 NOAA Doppler radar data from Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas, along with reconnaissance data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that Hanna has continued to strengthen this morning. A well-defined but fairly large 30-35-nmi-wide eye has formed and recent dropsonde data from the eye indicate that the central pressure has dropped to 978 mb. The aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 77 kt, which equates to about 69 kt at the surface. During the past hour, Doppler velocities have sharply increased with numerous patches of 85-90 kt between 7000-8000 ft common in the northern eyewall. Although these values would typically correspond to surface winds of about 75 kt, the Doppler velocity are occurring in low reflectivity regions of 25-30 dBZ, so the full effect of those winds are likely not reaching the surface. This could be why the highest SFMR surface wind observed by the aircraft was only 63 kt. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt, which is a blend of the aircraft flight-level, radar, and SFMR surface wind speed estimates. The center position is a tad north of the recon fixes due to some southward tilt of the eye caused by northerly shear. This has resulted in a slower westward motion of 270/06 kt. The ridge to the north of the hurricane has been slowly building westward and southwestward based on upper-air data over the past 24 hours. This slow ridging pattern is expected to continue for the next 48 hours, resulting in Hanna gradually turning toward the west-southwest by late this afternoon or evening, with landfall occurring in about 12 h along south Texas coast. After landfall, Hanna should continue its west-southwestward motion until dissipation over the mountainous terrain of northeastern Mexico in 48-60 h. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus model guidance. Although the deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to remain out of the north-northwest to north at about 20 kt, the relatively large and stable eye, along with the expected convective vigor of the hurricane, could result in a little more strengthening just before landfall occurs. After landfall, rapid weakening of the wind field is expected. However, the weakening peak winds will have no negative effect on the likelihood for heavy rainfall or the possibility of isolated tornadoes developing. Key Messages 1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Sargent, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to Mesquite Bay, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area this morning. 3. Hanna is expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. These rains could result in life-threatening flash flooding and isolated minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 27.1N 96.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 26.9N 97.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 24H 26/1200Z 26.4N 99.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 27/0000Z 25.9N 100.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/1200Z 25.3N 102.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-07-25 16:42:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 251441 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 1500 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED NORTH OF SARGENT TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO SARGENT TEXAS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO MESQUITE BAY TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS * MESQUITE BAY TO SARGENT TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA. INTERESTS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 96.3W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 96.3W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 96.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.9N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.4N 99.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 25.9N 100.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 25.3N 102.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 96.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-07-25 10:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250843 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Sat Jul 25 2020 On the last leg in the east semicircle of Gonzalo, the 53rd Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported numerous SFMR winds of 35 to 40 kts, with lighter winds at flight-level. The surface circulation, however, was still poorly defined, and barely closed. Based on the reconnaissance observations, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Due to the fact that Gonzalo is moving within an impeding thermodynamic environment, little change in intensity is forecast as the cyclone approaches the southern Windward Islands this afternoon. As Gonzalo moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea, lingering large-scale subsidence and the cyclone's close proximity to the coast of Venezuela are predicted to cause the system to weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure in a couple of days which is consistent with the global model's solution. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/15 kt. Gonzalo should gain very little latitude with time as it continues moving westward to west-northwestward within the fresh low-level tradewind flow. The official forecast is once again nudged a bit toward the south and aligns with the NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus model. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to a portion of the southern Windward Islands today and tonight. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 10.1N 58.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 10.7N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 11.5N 65.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 12.1N 69.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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