je.st
news
Tag: forecast
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-07-28 22:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 28 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 282039 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 28 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CABO CAUCEDO NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA * GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * DOMINICA * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 55.9W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 90 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 55.9W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 54.9W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.4N 58.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 16.7N 62.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 0SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.2N 66.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 60SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.7N 69.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 0SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.9N 72.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.2N 75.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 80SE 0SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 24.7N 79.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 27.0N 81.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 55.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
potential
advisory
tropical
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-28 16:58:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 281458 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased overnight and this morning in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Recent visible satellite imagery and ASCAT data show that the system's circulation is quite elongated and lacks a well-defined center. Observations from NOAA buoy 41040 and ASCAT suggest that the system is already producing winds of 30-35 kt, and the systems's initial intensity has been set to 35 kt. Dry air located just to the north of the system has been hindering development over the past couple of days, but environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for development over the next couple of days. Therefore, the system is likely to become a tropical storm before it reaches the Leeward Islands and advisories are being initiated in order to issue Tropical Storm Warnings for a portion of the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. A U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system early this afternoon, and should provide additional information on the intensity and structure of the low pressure area. It cannot be stressed enough that since the system is still in the formative stage, greater than average uncertainty exists regarding both the short-term and longer-term track and intensity forecasts. A subtropical ridge that extends westward from the central Atlantic is expected to be the dominant steering mechanism over the next several days, and the flow around this ridge should steer the low pressure area generally west-northwestward. However, the details in the track forecast could change depending on exactly where within elongated circulation the center forms. Regardless of the exact track, the system is expected to bring locally heavy rainfall to much of the Lesser Antilles, and tropical-storm-force winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico within the next 24-48 hours. After that time, a general west- northwestward heading should continue but as mentioned before, uncertainty exists as to how close the system tracks to Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. It should be noted that a stronger cyclone is likely to favor a more northern track, while a weaker system is likely to remain more equatorward. Users should remember that the long-term average NHC track forecast errors at days 4 and 5 are 140 and 175 n mi, respectively. Given the current structure of the system, only gradual strengthening is predicted during the next day or two, however the system is expected to become a tropical storm when it is near the Leeward Islands on Wednesday. After 48 hours, possible land interaction with the Greater Antilles, and increasing south to southwesterly shear from an upper-level trough could temper further strengthening. The global models generally weaken the system due to these negative factors and the NHC forecast calls for little change in strength at the longer range. Interests in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should continue to monitor forecasts as changes to both track and intensity are likely. Key Messages: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a well-defined center and could move over portions of the Greater Antilles later this week. However, this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida by the end of the week. Interests there should monitor its progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 13.8N 53.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0000Z 14.8N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 29/1200Z 16.0N 60.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 30/0000Z 17.3N 64.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 18.8N 67.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 20.1N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 21.3N 73.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 24.1N 77.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 26.8N 80.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
potential
tropical
AG Barr bullish over FY sales forecast - trading update
2020-07-28 15:05:00| Daily beverage news and comment - from just-drinks.com
Irn-Bru owner AG Barr expects sales for full-year 2020 to drop by as little as 12% despite the coronavirus impact.
Tags: sales
update
trading
forecast
Tropical Depression Hanna Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-07-26 22:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 262034 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Hanna Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 Surface observations along with radar and satellite imagery show that Hanna continues to weaken as it moves farther inland. There have been no recent observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and Doppler velocities have continued to decrease. Based on these trends, the initial wind speed has been reduced to 30 kt. Hanna should continue to spin down while it moves over the high terrain of northeastern Mexico. The system is forecast to become a remnant low in 12-18 hours, and should dissipate over the mountains of Mexico by late Monday, if not sooner. Hanna is moving west-southwestward or 245/8 kt. The cyclone should continue on this general heading and speed until dissipation occurs. The updated NHC track forecast is again similar to the previous advisory and is close to the dynamical model consensus. This is the last NHC advisory on Hanna. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages 1. Heavy rainfall from Hanna has already produced numerous reports of flash flooding across south Texas. Additional heavy rainfall will continue to result in life-threatening flash flooding over south Texas and northern Mexico, and isolated minor river flooding in south Texas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 25.6N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 27/0600Z 25.2N 101.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 27/1800Z 25.0N 102.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Hanna Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-07-26 22:33:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 26 2020 103 WTNT23 KNHC 262033 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 2100 UTC SUN JUL 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 100.6W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 100.6W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 100.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 25.2N 101.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 25.0N 102.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 100.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HANNA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3, WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Sites : [582] [583] [584] [585] [586] [587] [588] [589] [590] [591] [592] [593] [594] [595] [596] [597] [598] [599] [600] [601] next »