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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-07-22 22:38:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 222038 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 130.9W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 130.9W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.1N 138.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.4N 141.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.6N 145.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.7N 148.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 154.0W...NEAR HAWAII MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.0W...NEAR HAWAII MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 130.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-07-22 22:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 222032 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 Satellite imagery suggests that Gonzalo's intensification has paused since the last advisory. The cyclone continues to show a central dense overcast, and microwave imagery indicates a small convective ring present under the overcast. However, the CDO has become a bit ragged, and the other banding seen earlier has dissipated. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 45-55 kt range, the the initial intensity remains a possibly conservative 45 kt. The initial motion is now 270/12. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy. Gonzalo is on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the storm generally westward at a faster forward speed for the next 60 h or so. After that time, a motion toward the west-northwest is expected. The new NHC forecast track is again little changed from the previous track, and it lies very close to the consensus models. The intensity forecast remains very problematic and of low confidence. On one side, the cyclone structure, light shear environment,and warm sea surface temperatures suggest strengthening, possibly even rapidly, should occur. In addition, the SHIPS-based guidance and the HWRF still make the system a hurricane. On the other side, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF models continue to forecast the system to weaken to an open wave by 120 h, possibly due to dry air entrainment and large-scale subsidence, and microwave imagery suggests that a tongue of drier air is present west and southwest of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast again compromises between these extremes, showing Gonzalo peaking as a hurricane in 36-48 h, followed by weakening in deference to the GFS/UKMET/ECMWF. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. As noted before, the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be issued sometime on Thursday. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is expected to move near or over the southern Windward Islands this weekend, and could bring direct impacts from winds and heavy rainfall. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude and timing of those impacts, interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 9.9N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 10.0N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 10.1N 49.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 10.3N 51.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 12.1N 60.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 14.0N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 15.0N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-07-22 22:31:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 222031 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 45.0W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 45.0W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 44.4W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.0N 46.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.1N 49.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.3N 51.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.1N 60.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 14.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 15.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-07-22 16:57:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 221456 TCDEP3 Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020 Douglas has resumed strengthening, after remaining steady state for almost 24 hours. The system has developed a ragged eye during the past couple of hours, although the cirrus from the inner-core convection has been obscuring that feature somewhat. There is a wide range among the satellite intensity estimates--between 55 kt and 77 kt--and the latest objective guidance is right at the hurricane threshold. Therefore, Douglas has been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane, the first of the 2020 eastern Pacific season. During the period of reliable records, this is the 4th latest date on which the first hurricane of the season has formed. Douglas continues to move westward, or 265/13 kt, due south of a mid-level ridge which extends from the Baja California peninsula to 140W. This ridge is not expected to change much in strength or position in the coming days, and Douglas is therefore expected to move westward or west-northwestward, gradually gaining latitude, during the entire forecast period. There is very little spread among the track models, although the new suite of models is a little bit faster compared to the previous forecast. The updated NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly, although it should be noted that the overall forecast path has changed very little. With Douglas's improved structure, low shear and warm sea surface temperatures (28-29C) should support further strengthening during the next 36 hours or so. There's still a significant chance of rapid intensification during that period, with the GFS- and ECWMF-based SHIPS RI guidance both over 50 percent. After that time, oceanic heat content values fall below zero along Douglas's forecast track, and it is likely that the hurricane would begin to gradually weaken, although not considerably so since vertical shear is not expected to increase until about day 4. SHIPS, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble are in very good agreement, especially during the first part of the forecast period, and so the NHC intensity forecast closely follows those solutions. This new forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity compared to previous forecasts. Key Messages: 1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 11.8N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 12.0N 131.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 13.1N 134.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 14.4N 137.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 15.7N 140.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 17.0N 143.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 18.0N 146.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 19.0N 152.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 20.0N 158.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 9

2020-07-22 16:55:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 221455 TCMEP3 HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 129.5W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 129.5W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 128.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.0N 131.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.1N 134.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.4N 137.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.7N 140.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 143.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 146.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.0N 152.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.0N 158.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 129.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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