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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-07-05 22:30:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 052030 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 2100 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 60.5W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 60.5W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 61.9W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 37.9N 56.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 41.1N 48.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 44.5N 41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 48.0N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 60.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-07-05 16:35:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 051434 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 The depression is accelerating northeastward, away from Bermuda. It continues to produce deep convection primarily to the south of its center with little change in organization since yesterday. The most recent TAFB Dvorak classification supports maintaining the intensity at 30 kt. Scatterometer data that will likely arrive after the issuance of this advisory may provide more information about the current surface wind structure of the cyclone. No substantial changes were made to the NHC forecast. The cyclone will continue to accelerate northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or two. It is possible that the depression could open into a trough at some point today as its forward speed increases, but most of the dynamical guidance indicates it will persist long enough to undergo extratropical transition on Monday. Minimal strengthening is possible today as the forward speed of the depression increases and it begins to get some positive baroclinic support. In fact, nearly all of the global models indicate that the system will produce tropical-storm-force winds around the time it becomes fully extratropical, and this is reflected in the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 34.5N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 36.6N 59.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 39.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 42.5N 46.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1200Z 45.8N 39.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-07-05 16:33:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 051433 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 1500 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 63.0W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 63.0W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 64.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.6N 59.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.5N 53.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.5N 46.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 45.8N 39.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 63.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-05 10:36:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050836 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 AM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 Convection has increased in association with Tropical Depression Five during the past several hours, with satellite imagery showing cooling cloud tops near the center and data from the radar on Bermuda indicating some banding. An earlier scatterometer overpass showed 25-30 kt winds to the southeast of the center, and so far sustained winds at the various automated stations on Bermuda have been in the 20-30 kt range. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion is now northeastward or 055/17. The cyclone should accelerate to the northeast or east-northeast over the next couple of days as it encounters the stronger mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, although the guidance has trended faster for this advisory. Based on this, the new forecast track is similar in direction, but faster than, the previous forecast. Some strengthening could occur today, and the forecast peak intensity of 35 kt is a little below the intensity consensus. The guidance now suggests that extratropical transition should occur by 36 h, and the the forecast has been adjusted to reflect that. It remains possible that the depression will open up into a trough later today, but for now this forecast maintains continuity with the previous one in maintaining the system as a cyclone. Locally heavy rain and gusty winds should persist on Bermuda for the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 33.3N 64.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 35.4N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 38.3N 56.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 41.4N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/0600Z 44.4N 43.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-07-05 10:36:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050836 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 0900 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 64.9W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 64.9W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 65.8W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 35.4N 61.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.3N 56.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 41.4N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 44.4N 43.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 64.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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