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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-07-09 04:32:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 090232 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.6W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.6W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.2W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.3N 110.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.3N 111.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.0N 116.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.6N 119.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 122.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 127.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.6N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 108.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-07-08 22:50:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 082050 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 Cristina is having some difficulty this afternoon in maintaining deep convection over its center. Briefly, the low-level center became apparent via GOES-16 visible imagery just north of its main convective mass. This exposed center was also confirmed by a 1756Z 37 GHz color image from the GPM satellite. The more-easily-observed center allows for a confident assessment of its northwest motion at 11 kt. Cristina should turn back to the west-northwest at about the same rate of forward speed tomorrow as a broad mid-level ridge builds north of the tropical storm. That motion should continue for the next few days until Cristina turns to the west and accelerates slightly as its remnant low is steered by the near-surface trade winds. The global and hurricane dynamical models are in close agreement on this forecast track, which is slightly north of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position of Cristina. The Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB not changing at 18Z as well as the partially exposed center indicate that the earlier intensification has temporarily ceased. A 50-kt maximum wind remains the current intensity, though the ASCAT-A pass and SATCON satellite consensus suggests that this may be somewhat generous. Conditions are quite conducive for intensification in the short term, as SSTs are above 28C, mid-level humidity is near 75 percent, and deep tropospheric vertical shear is only 5-10 kt. However, the SSTs are already cooling along the track of Cristina and it should pass over the 27C SST isotherm in about 36-48 hours. After 48 hours, the thermodynamic components quickly become hostile for the system. The statistical and mesoscale hurricane models have backed off some more and the peak intensity has been lowered slightly compared to the previous advisory. It does appear that the opportunity for Cristina to rapidly intensify is diminishing. Cristina is expected to become a remnant low in four to five days, once deep convection ceases. The aforementioned ASCAT-A scatterometer pass confirmed the rather small size - 60 nm maximum wind radii in the southeastern quadrant - of Cristina this afternoon. Only a modest increase in size is expected over the next couple of days based on the RVCN consensus technique. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 16.0N 107.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 18.9N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 19.8N 115.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 20.6N 118.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 21.1N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 9

2020-07-08 22:44:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 082044 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.9N 113.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 115.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.6N 118.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.1N 120.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 107.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 8

2020-07-08 16:58:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 081457 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 First light satellite images show that the convective organization of Cristina is gradually improving, while banding features are developing across the northern portion of the circulation. The center remains underneath the northeastern side of the main area of convection due to moderate shear, but this shear appears to be diminishing. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt, which is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Cristina turned to the northwest and slowed down to about 10 kt this morning. A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected to occur later today or tonight, and this motion is forecast to continue for the next few days as the cyclone is steered by a large ridge centered over the southwestern United States. Later in the forecast period, a turn to the west is expected as the weakening cyclone becomes steered by the low-level easterlies. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast lies near the middle of the envelope. The decreasing shear over Cristina combined with warm SSTs and a moist air mass should allow the cyclone to intensify over the next couple of days. After that time, the system will cross over the 26 C isotherm and enter into a drier and more stable atmospheric environment. This should cause a steady weakening trend to begin after 48 h. Although the forecast still shows Cristina as a tropical storm in 5 days, it is possible all of the deep convection would have dissipated by that time. The latest NHC forecast is very close to the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 14.6N 106.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 15.4N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 16.6N 110.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 17.6N 112.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 18.5N 114.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 20.2N 119.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 21.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 21.5N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-07-08 16:53:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 081452 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.9W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.9W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.4N 108.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.6N 110.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.6N 112.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.5N 114.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.2N 119.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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