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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-07-10 10:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100842 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.0W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.0W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.7N 114.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.4N 117.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.9N 120.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.3N 122.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.6N 125.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 127.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 113.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-07-10 10:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 154 WTNT21 KNHC 100841 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 74.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 74.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 74.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-10 04:39:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100239 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the circulation center of Fay is elongated northeast-southwest, with satellite and radar data showing a strong convective cluster at the northeastern end of the elongation. There have been no observations near the center during the past few hours, and the initial intensity is held at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. An Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Fay. Due to the elongated center and the possibility the center is trying to re-form near the convection, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 010/7. There is no change to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and essentially no change to the forecast track. Fay is expected to move generally northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching mid-latitude trough for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast until dissipation between 60-72 h. The guidance is in generally good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast lies close to the various consensus models. Fay is currently over the Gulf Stream and within an area of light to moderate westerly shear caused by an upper-level trough to its west and southwest. This is producing an environment that should allow a little strengthening for the next 12-24 h. After that, the storm should weaken as it passes over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, followed by landfall over the northeastern United States. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in calling for extratropical transition between 48-60 h and dissipation shortly thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 36.3N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 37.7N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 43.0N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 46.7N 71.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/1200Z 50.2N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-07-10 04:38:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 851 WTNT21 KNHC 100238 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 74.8W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 74.8W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 37.7N 74.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 43.0N 73.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 46.7N 71.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 50.2N 69.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 74.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-07-10 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100234 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Cristina's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat during the past several hours, with deep convection on the wane and some evidence of dry air near the center. Still, microwave data does show a large banding pattern with a mid-level core present, suggesting there might be more than meets the eye than just conventional satellite imagery. The current intensity of the storm is difficult to ascertain, as estimates from generally credible techniques range from 45 kt to 77 kt on this package. It is probably best to keep the initial wind speed 60 kt for now, and we will see if the intensity becomes more clear overnight. The storm has about a day over marginally warm waters in light shear conditions before SSTs begin to cool, and eventually more significant dry air is entrained into the inner core. Thus some strengthening is anticipated on Friday, and Cristina should start a gradual weakening over the weekend through early next week. The cyclone should have a challenging time producing convection over sub-23C waters, which happens in about 72 hours, so that is the time chosen for post-tropical transition. This is earlier than the previous forecast and best matches a GFS/ECMWF blend. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast with guidance in good agreement at this time. Christina continues moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen over the next day or so, which should force the storm in a similar direction but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is expected. The forecast track is a little slower than the previous one at long range, otherwise the track is basically an update of the earlier track prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 18.4N 111.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 19.1N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.8N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 21.6N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 21.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0000Z 22.2N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 22.5N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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