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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 14

2020-07-10 04:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 100233 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.9W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.9W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.1N 113.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.8N 118.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.6N 124.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N 127.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 22.2N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 22.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-07-09 22:57:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 092057 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Satellite and radar imagery, along with surface observations, have shown that the area of the low pressure near the coast of North Carolina reformed closer to the deep convection east of the Outer Banks today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the disturbance this afternoon confirmed that the center is located near the edge of the primary convective mass, and that the system is producing an area of 35-40 kt winds to the east and southeast of the center. Based on these observations, the system is classified as a tropical storm with an initial intensity of 40 kt. Fay is located over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and within an area of light to moderate westerly shear. These environmental conditions could allow for slight strengthening tonight and Friday. After that time, the circulation is forecast to interact with the mid-Atlantic coast and will be passing over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, likely limiting any further intensification. Fay should weakening quickly once it moves inland Friday night or Saturday. Since a new center has recently formed, the initial motion is a highly uncertain 360/6 kt. Fay is expected to move generally northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching mid-latitude trough. The 12Z dynamical model guidance has come into much better agreement on a track very close to the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast. With the recent center reformation to the northeast, the tracker guidance from the dynamical models shows a track farther offshore than the model fields imply. As a result, the NHC track lies along the left side of the guidance envelope but it is not as far west as what is indicated in the model fields. The NHC track and intensity forecast has required the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the U.S. coast from the mid-Atlantic states to southern New England. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 35.5N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 37.1N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 39.0N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 41.6N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0600Z 49.1N 70.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-07-09 22:55:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 092055 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 2100 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY NORTHWARD TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 74.9W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 74.9W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 74.9W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 37.1N 74.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 39.0N 74.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.6N 73.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.3N 72.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 49.1N 70.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 74.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 13

2020-07-09 22:36:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 437 WTPZ45 KNHC 092036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Satellite images and microwave data indicate that the structure of Cristina has improved since this morning. Banding features have become more prevalent, while deep convection has persisted over the center throughout the day. In addition, the average of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB has increased since this morning's advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt. The storm will remain in a favorable environment for intensification through Friday morning, and it is expected to become a hurricane by that time. By late Friday, the cyclone will cross the 26 C isotherm and move into a progressively more stable and dry atmospheric environment. This should result in steady weakening. There is some spread in the guidance as to how quickly Cristina will lose its convection later on in the forecast period. The GFS suggests this will not occur until 120 h, while the Canadian and ECMWF indicate this will happen in 96 h and 72 h, respectively. Based on a blend of these, Cristina is now expected to become a remnant low by 96 h. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and is close to the consensus aids. Cristina's initial motion is west-northwest at 10 kt. The mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen a little over the next day or so, which should keep Cristina on the same path but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is expected. The guidance shifted slightly northward beyond day 3, so the NHC track forecasted was nudged a little north for that time frame. Otherwise, the latest NHC track forecast is little changed compared to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.9N 111.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 18.7N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 19.7N 115.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 20.5N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 21.0N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 21.4N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 21.9N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z 22.3N 137.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 13

2020-07-09 22:36:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 092036 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.1W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 135SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.1W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.7N 112.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.7N 115.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.5N 117.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.0N 120.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.4N 123.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.9N 131.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 22.3N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 111.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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