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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-07-06 22:37:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 062037 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 99.7W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 99.7W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 99.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 11.2N 101.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.1N 103.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.0N 105.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.7N 110.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 17.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 18.8N 118.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 99.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-07-06 22:34:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 062033 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 PM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 Although Edouard continues to produce some deep convection, recent satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the center of the cyclone has merged with a frontal boundary. Therefore, the system is now classified as extratropical and this is the last advisory. The scatterometer data showed max winds of 35-40 kt, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The 35 kt wind radii were also increased in the southeast quadrant based on the scatterometer data. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to continue moving quickly northeastward for the next day or so until it is absorbed into a larger frontal zone over the north Atlantic late Tuesday or early Wednesday. The NHC track and intensity forecast is close to the global model consensus, and all of those models are in good agreement for the next 24 h. This is the last NHC advisory on Edouard. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 42.7N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 07/0600Z 45.1N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 07/1800Z 48.5N 33.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Edouard Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-07-06 22:33:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 062033 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 46.0W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 33 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 180SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.7N 46.0W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.8N 47.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 45.1N 40.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 48.5N 33.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.7N 46.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 9

2020-07-06 16:42:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 061442 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 Visible satellite imagery continues to show that the low-level center of Edouard is exposed to the southwest of the area of deep convection. A frontal boundary is approaching the system from the northwest and there are signs that Edouard's extratropical transition has begun. Subjective and objective intensity estimates from TAFB and UW/CIMSS are between 35-45 kt, and the initial intensity has been raised to 40 kt based on the above, and the rapid forward speed of the cyclone. ASCAT data should provide a better assessment of Edouard's intensity very shortly. Edouard is racing northeastward with an initial estimate of 055/32 kt. The cyclone should continue on this general speed and heading over the next day or two as it remains embedded within an area of strong southwesterly flow. The updated NHC track forecast is again near the middle of the guidance envelope and very similar to the previous advisory. Cooler waters, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, and the approaching frontal zone should cause Edouard to complete its extratropical transition within the next 6-12 hours. Little change in strength is expected as this occurs. Gradual weakening should begin on Tuesday, and the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate within a frontal zone over the north Atlantic in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 40.8N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 43.2N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 07/1200Z 46.7N 37.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/0000Z 50.0N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1200Z 53.0N 20.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Advisory Number 9

2020-07-06 16:41:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 618 WTNT25 KNHC 061441 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 1500 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 50.0W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 32 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 50.0W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 51.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 43.2N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 46.7N 37.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 50.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 53.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.8N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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