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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-07-07 10:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070831 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020 Deep convection is gradually expanding over the center of Cristina and in curved bands over the western portion of the circulation. An ASCAT-B overpass from around 0430 UTC showed maximum winds of around 35 kt. Based on that data and Dvorak estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. Cristina is expected to strengthen during the next few days due to the favorable environmental conditions of low wind shear and warm SSTs, and its developing compact inner core as observed in satellite data. The only limiting factor is some dry air that has entrained into the eastern portion of the circulation. However, given the largely conducive conditions for strengthening, the NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance during the next 3 days. Although it is not explicitly forecast, rapid intensification could occur sometime during the next couple of days. Cristina will likely be moving over SSTs below 26 C and into a drier and more stable air mass late this week and this weekend, and that should induce a weakening trend. This intensity forecast is mostly an update of the previous one and in best agreement with corrected consensus model HCCA. Satellite fixes indicate that Cristina is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. The track forecast reasoning is fairly straightforward. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen in place during the next several days. This should keep Cristina on a west-northwestward path well offshore of Mexico through the remainder of the week and into this weekend. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this prediction lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 11.5N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 12.2N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 13.3N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 14.3N 108.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 15.3N 109.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 16.3N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 17.3N 113.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 18.9N 117.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-07-07 10:30:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 070830 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 102.4W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 102.4W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 101.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.2N 104.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.3N 106.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.3N 108.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.3N 109.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.3N 111.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.3N 113.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 18.9N 117.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 102.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-07-07 04:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 031 WTPZ45 KNHC 070232 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that convection has increased and become better organized since the previous advisory, although convection has waned somewhat during the past couple of hours due to entrainment of dry mid-level air. A 2213Z SSMI overpass showed a small but well-defined mid-level eye feature in the 85 GHz data and the latest TAFB satellite classification was T2.0/30 kt. Based on the improved banding features and the mid-level eye, the intensity has been increased to a conservative 35 kt. The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt, based on a blend of TAFB and microwave satellite fixes. Cristina is expected to be steered west-northwestward throughout the forecast period along the southern periphery of a large deep-layer ridge that extends westward from the south-central and southwestern United States. The latest NHC model guidance has become more tightly packed around the previous forecast track, so only minor tweaks were made in the form of a slightly faster forward speed. The NHC track forecast lies close to the simple consensus models, which are a little south of the corrected-consensus model HCCA. Cristina is expected to remain in quite favorable environmental and oceanic conditions for the next 72 h or so. The small inner-core eye-like feature and the expected low vertical shear and impressive upper-level outflow conditions suggest that rapid intensification (RI) could occur at some point occur during that time. However, recent entrainment of dry mid-level air into the eastern semicircle has eroded convection in that part of the circulation, and the dry air may have even penetrated into and disrupted the inner core itself. Given the aforementioned uncertainty in the structure of the cyclone, RI is not being explicitly forecast at this time, although the official intensity forecast is higher than the previous advisory through 96 h. By 120 h, significant weakening should be well underway when Cristina will be moving over 24-deg-C sea-surface temperatures. The NHC official intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast, and there is a distinct possibility that Cristina could undergo RI and also become a major hurricane if the inner-core region has not been disrupted. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 11.2N 101.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 11.9N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 12.9N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 13.9N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 14.8N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 15.7N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 16.5N 112.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 18.1N 116.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 19.9N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-07-07 04:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 070231 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 101.3W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 101.3W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 100.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 11.9N 103.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.9N 105.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.9N 107.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.8N 109.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.7N 110.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.5N 112.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 18.1N 116.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 19.9N 121.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 101.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-07-06 22:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 208 WTPZ45 KNHC 062038 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 Satellite imagery shows that deep convection associated with the low pressure area south of Mexico has become significantly better organized since this morning. ASCAT data from earlier this afternoon suggested that the circulation was still somewhat elongated, but since that time low cloud motions indicate that the circulation has become better defined. The scatterometer data also revealed believable wind vectors of at least 30 kt, with higher rain-inflated vectors within the deep convection. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression at this time. The depression is located within a favorable environment consisting of low vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere. As a result, steady strengthening is anticipated over the next several days, and the NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids IVCN and HCCA, but is not quite as bullish as the SHIPS guidance. Given the anticipated low wind shear conditions over the next few days, a period of rapid strengthening is possible, and this intensity forecast could be somewhat conservative. The cyclone is expected to move over cooler waters in about 96 hours, which should cause weakening by the end of the period. Since the depression is still in its formative stage, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/11 kt. The depression is being steered west-northwestward to the south of a large mid-level ridge located over the south-central United States. A general west-northwestward heading about around the same forward speed is expected over the next several days. The dynamical model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 10.5N 99.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 11.2N 101.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 12.1N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 13.0N 105.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 15.7N 110.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 17.2N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 18.8N 118.7W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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