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Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 8

2020-07-06 10:45:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 060845 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 AM AST Mon Jul 06 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Edouard is comprised of an exposed swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with a strong cluster of convection over the northeastern quadrant. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 35-45 kt, and the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 35 kt. Due to the rapid motion, it is possible that the system no longer has a closed circulation. However, there is not enough evidence of this to justify stopping advisories at this time. The initial motion is quickly northeastward or 055/31. Edouard is embedded in strong southwesterly mid-latitude flow, and a fast motion toward the northeast should continue until the cyclone dissipates. The new track forecast is little changed from the previous forecast, and it lies near the center of the tightly clustered model guidance. The cyclone is located in a region of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, is heading for colder water, and is approaching a frontal system. This combination should lead to extratropical transition between 12-24 h, and it is possible that Edouard could strengthen a little as transition occurs. After transition, the extratropical low should persist for another 24 h or so before the circulation dissipates. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 39.0N 53.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 41.3N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 44.7N 41.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/1800Z 48.0N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/0600Z 51.6N 25.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-07-06 10:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 060845 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 0900 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 53.6W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 31 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 150SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 53.6W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 41.3N 48.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 44.7N 41.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 48.0N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 51.6N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 53.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-07-06 04:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 773 WTNT45 KNHC 060238 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 Satellite images indicate that the cyclone has become better organized during the past several hours, with a large convective burst causing a better-defined low-level circulation. While the center is now becoming exposed due to southwesterly shear, the maximum winds have almost certainly increased from earlier, so the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt. A recent partial ASCAT pass of at least 30 kt outside the RMW also supports the upgrade to a tropical storm, and the CIMSS satellite consensus (SATCON) is even higher than the analyzed intensity. Edouard is moving northeastward even faster than before, or 055/30 kt. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on a quick northeastward or east-northeastward motion for the next couple of days before the system degenerates into a trough. Extratropical transition is anticipated by 24 hours due to forcing from a middle-latitude trough and a frontal boundary. Some minor strengthening of Edouard due to the transition process is possible over the next day or so before the global models show a gradual weakening. The track forecast has been adjusted a bit faster to account for the latest guidance and initial forward speed, and the intensity forecast has also been nudged upward to account for the current wind speed. Edouard is the earliest known 5th named storm on record for the Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the record formerly held by Emily on July 12, 2005. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 37.2N 56.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 39.6N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 42.9N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/1200Z 46.5N 37.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/0000Z 50.0N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Edouard Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-07-06 04:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 060235 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 0300 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 56.9W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 56.9W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 58.5W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.6N 51.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.9N 44.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 46.5N 37.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 50.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.2N 56.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-07-05 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 052032 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 The depressions cloud pattern has become less organized today, with increasing separation between the remaining convective activity and the low-level center. The circulation also appears to be less defined, but the various ASCAT instruments missed the center late this morning and were not helpful in determining if a well-defined center still exits. Data from the ASCAT-C instrument revealed some 25-30 kt wind vectors over the southeastern portion of the system, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The depression is moving northeastward or 055/23 kt. The system should continue to accelerate northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. Given the expected acceleration and current structure, it would not be surprising if the system degenerated into a trough of low pressure later today or tonight. The depression or its remnants, however, are forecast to transition into an extratropical cyclone on Monday. Little change in strength is forecast although it is possible that the system will produce tropical-storm-force winds by the time it becomes extratropical on Monday as it accelerates and gains some baroclinic support. Only slight adjustments were made to the previous NHC track and intensity forecast, and the new official forecast is near the middle of the dynamical model envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 35.8N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 37.9N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 41.1N 48.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/0600Z 44.5N 41.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1800Z 48.0N 34.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

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