je.st
news
Tag: forecast
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-07-09 16:42:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 091442 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Cristina's convective structure has evolved into a large curved band over the past several hours. The improving appearance has not yet materialized in an increase in intensity, but may be indicative that some strengthening may soon occur. The initial wind speed estimate of 55 kt, is based on the most recent TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate. The storm will remain in a favorable environment for intensification for another 24 h or so. And, with the convective structure beginning to show some improvement, it is reasonable to assume that some strengthening is likely through tonight. After 24 h, the cyclone will cross the 26 C isotherm and move into a progressively more stable and dry atmospheric environment. This should result in steady weakening. By 120 h, Cristina is expected to have lost all of its deep convection and become a remnant low. The official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, indicating that Cristina should become a hurricane by tomorrow morning and then begin to weaken shortly thereafter. Cristina's initial motion is west-northwest at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen a little over the next day or so, which should keep Cristina on the same path but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is expected. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is in the middle of tightly clustered guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 17.4N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 18.2N 111.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 19.2N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 20.7N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 21.1N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 21.2N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 21.4N 131.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-07-09 16:42:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 091441 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.2W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.2W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 109.7W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.2N 111.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.2N 113.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.7N 119.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.1N 122.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.2N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.4N 131.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 110.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-07-09 10:31:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090831 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Although deep convection has been increasing tonight in association with Cristina, the overall cloud pattern and structure of the storm has changed little and it continues to lack banding features. The satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 60 kt, and a recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of around 40 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 55 kt. Cristina has not strengthened as much as anticipated. However, the storm still has about another 36 hours in favorable environmental conditions of wind shear of 10 kt or less, mid-level humidities between 75 and 80 percent, and SSTs of 26 C or warmer. During that period it still seems likely that Cristina will strengthen and it could become a hurricane. After 36 hours, Cristina is expected to move over much cooler waters and into a notably drier and more stable air mass. These conditions should promote a steady weakening trend, and Cristina will likely become a remnant low in 4 or 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and in good agreement with the IVCN consensus model. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge located over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen in place, and that should cause Cristina to move a little faster to the west-northwest during the next few days. After that time, the weaker and likely vertically shallow storm should turn toward the west in the low-level trade wind flow. The model tracks remain tightly packed, and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.8N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 17.6N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 18.6N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 19.6N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 20.9N 121.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 21.1N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 21.2N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 21.4N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-07-09 10:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 090830 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.4W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.4W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.6N 110.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.6N 112.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 115.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.9N 121.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.1N 124.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 21.2N 129.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.4N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 109.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-07-09 04:33:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090233 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 After the earlier convective hiatus, Cristina is now going through a little bit of a bursting phase with new inner-core convection developing just west of the center, with the latter feature showing up quite nicely in 0139 UTC SSMI/S microwave satellite imagery. The intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on satellite classifications of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, and 57 kt and 59 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively. Cristina is moving northwestward or 305/11 kt. The strong subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of the tropical cyclone should keep Cristina moving in that general direction tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest at about the same forward speed by Thursday morning. By 96 h and beyond, a rapidly weakening and vertically shallow Cristina should turn westward under the influence of brisk easterly trade wind flow. The latest NHC model guidance remains in strong agreement on this evolving track scenario, and the new track forecast closely follows the tightly packed consensus models, which are a little south of the previous advisory track. Environmental and oceanic conditions are expected to remain conducive for strengthening during the next 36-48 h while Cristina remains over SSTs greater than 26 deg C. By 72 h and beyond, the cyclone will be moving over much cooler water characterized by SSTs near 22C by 96-120h, which is expected to induce steady weakening despite the low vertical wind shear conditions. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the IVCN intensity consensus, with Cristina still expected to become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.4N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 17.3N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 18.3N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 19.2N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 20.0N 116.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 20.6N 119.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 21.0N 122.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 21.2N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 21.6N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [616] [617] [618] [619] [620] [621] [622] [623] [624] [625] [626] [627] [628] [629] [630] [631] [632] [633] [634] [635] next »