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IEA Raises 2020 Oil Demand Forecast But Warns COVID-19 Clouds Outlook
2020-07-10 16:20:40| OGI
The pandemic is not under control and carries a downside risk for the market, agency says.
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-10 14:00:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 101200 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Special Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Surface observations and radar data from the KDOX WSR-88D radar indicate that there is now an area of 34-kt winds extending north and northwest of the center of Fay. These winds will be approaching the coast of Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay in the next few hours, and as a result the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward to Fenwick Island, Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay. No changes were made to the previous track or intensity forecasts, however 34-kt wind radii were introduced in the northwest quadrant at the initial time and at the 12-h forecast. No other changes were made to the wind radii analyses or forecasts. Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC) intermediate advisory. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1200Z 37.6N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-07-10 13:58:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 101158 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 1200 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE...INCLUDING SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FENWICK ISLAND DELAWARE TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND * SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 74.7W AT 10/1200Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 74.7W AT 10/1200Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 74.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.6N 74.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-07-10 10:43:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100843 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Cristina has become better organized during the past several hours. A curved band wraps almost completely around the center, and a ragged eye has occasionally been apparent in satellite images. The cyclone is beginning to look like a hurricane, but there is still a large spread in the latest satellite intensity estimates, ranging from 45 to 77 kt. In addition, a recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of only 45 kt. Based on a compromise of all of this data, the initial intensity remains 60 kt for this advisory. Cristina could still become a hurricane today while it remains over waters warmer than 26 C and in low vertical wind shear conditions. However, by tonight the storm will likely be moving over progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air mass. The combination of these negative factors for the storm should promote a steady weakening trend beginning tonight, and ultimately Cristina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and in line with the consensus models IVCN and HCCA. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should continue to steer Cristina to the west-northwest during the next couple of days. Beyond that time, when Cristina becomes a weak and shallow system, a turn to the west is expected in the low-level flow. The track models remain tightly clustered, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.8N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 19.7N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 20.4N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 20.9N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 21.3N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 21.6N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 22.0N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-10 10:42:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100842 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay early this morning found that the storm had strengthened slightly, with maximum SFMR-observed surface winds near 45 kt. Additionally, the minimum central pressure had fallen a few mb since yesterday. Since the center of the cyclone is exposed on the southwest side of the main area of deep convection, and southwesterly shear over the system is forecast to persist, little if any additional strengthening is anticipated before landfall. Weakening should commence after the center moves inland in 12-24 hours. The official intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest model consensus aids. Center fixes from the Air Force plane show that the storm continues moving northward at a slightly faster pace, or 360/9 kt. During the next couple of days, Fay should move between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a short-wave trough dropping into the Ohio Valley region. There has been little change to the official track forecast, which remains close to the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 37.4N 74.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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