je.st
news
Tag: forecast
Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 40
2021-09-10 16:47:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 101447 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM FRANCOIS TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO FOGO ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 60.5W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT.......210NE 210SE 180SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 350SE 280SW 340NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 60.5W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 61.0W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 45.1N 56.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 230SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 52.0N 49.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 250SE 240SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 57.5N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 61.1N 38.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 480SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 60.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
larry
advisory
forecast
Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 39
2021-09-10 10:44:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 100844 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 Larry's satellite presentation has remained largely unchanged overnight. Deep convection continues to persist over and to the northeast of the center, with a larger outer band around the eastern portion of the circulation. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have lowered slightly, and the initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 75 kt. This lies between the lower subjective satellite estimates and the higher UW/CIMSS ADT and SATCON values. Larry is forecast to remain over warm waters and in low vertical wind shear conditions this morning, therefore little overall change in intensity is expected in the short term. The hurricane will cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream over much cooler SSTs this afternoon, but the increasingly fast forward speed of the system and baroclinic forcing from a mid-latitude trough approaching from the west is likely to help Larry maintain hurricane strength as is passes over southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Larry is forecast to become extratropical shortly thereafter, and some slight weakening should occur before the post-tropical cyclone is absorbed by a larger extratropical low near southern Greenland in a couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids and also follows the trends of the latest global model guidance. Larry has turned north-northeastward or 015/23 kt. The track guidance is once again in excellent agreement that Larry should turn northeastward today and continue to accelerate ahead of the aforementioned trough. The center of Larry should pass over southeastern Newfoundland tonight, but users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will extend far from the center of the cyclone. The updated official forecast lies near the center of the track guidance envelope, but is slightly faster than the previous forecast during the first 36 hours. Key Messages: 1. Larry is forecast to move over portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect. 2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through Saturday. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 37.7N 61.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 41.9N 59.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 48.6N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 55.0N 46.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/0600Z 60.0N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
larry
forecast
Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 39
2021-09-10 10:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 100843 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WESTWARD TO FRANCOIS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TO FOGO ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM FRANCOIS TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO FOGO ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 61.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......210NE 210SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..380NE 350SE 280SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 61.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 62.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 41.9N 59.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 230SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.6N 53.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 250SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 55.0N 46.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 60.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...420NE 420SE 480SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 61.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 10/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
larry
advisory
forecast
Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-10 04:48:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 483 WTNT43 KNHC 100248 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 The structure of Mindy this evening has become quite diffuse, with a linear band of convection mostly associated with a prominent outflow boundary emanating away from the system. The last-light visible low-level cloud motions gave the impression that Mindy was opening up into a trough, with southwesterly flow ahead and northeasterly flow immediately behind the estimated center. Indeed, a ASCAT-A pass valid at 0002 UTC suggested that Mindy no longer has closed cyclonic flow on its northeast side, with a lack of easterly wind vectors in this sector of the system. In addition, a rapidly advancing frontal boundary has already moved off of the Carolina coast and will soon be merging with the leftover vort-max associated with Mindy. The accumulation of all this evidence indicates that Mindy no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, and this will be the final advisory on the system. The post-tropical remains of Mindy have continued to accelerate to the east-northeast this evening at 070/25 kt, moving almost as quickly as the the maximum sustained winds, which is another reason why the circulation is likely no longer closed. This motion should continue for the next 12-24 hours with a gradual slowdown until what remains of the circulation becomes indistinguishable from the frontal boundary it is becoming embedded in. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 32.5N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 10/1200Z 33.2N 71.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 11/0000Z 34.1N 67.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
cyclone
Hurricane Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-09-10 04:48:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 482 WTPZ45 KNHC 100248 TCDEP5 Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Imagery from the Mexican radar at Cabo San Lucas, along with satellite imagery, indicates that the eye of Olaf is about to make landfall near San Jose del Cabo, and that hurricane conditions in the northwestern eyewall have already spread onshore. The eyewall cloud tops have cooled during the past few hours, and the objective intensity estimate from the CIMSS ADT technique has increased to 90 kt. Based on this and an increase in the organization of the eyewall on the Cabo radar imagery, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt. The initial motion is 325/10. Olaf should continue moving northwestward to north-northwestward for the next 12-24 h, with the center moving near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during this time. After that, a mid-level ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States should cause Olaf to turn westward, and this should be followed by a southwestward motion as the weakening cyclone becomes steered by low-level northeasterly flow. The forecast guidance has changed little since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. A gradual weakening is expected during the first 24 h as Olaf interacts with the Baja California peninsula. When the cyclone turns westward after 24 h, it should move over colder water and into a drier air mass. This combination should cause the convection to decay, with the system becoming a post-tropical low by 60 h and a remnant low by 72 h. The new intensity forecast has some minor changes from the previous forecast, and it lies in the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to move very near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur tonight and Friday. Hurricane conditions have begun within the southern portion of the hurricane warning area tonight and will spread northward through Friday. 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 23.0N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 23.9N 110.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/0000Z 24.6N 112.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 11/1200Z 24.8N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 24.4N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 23.7N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 13/0000Z 23.0N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 21.6N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 21.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Sites : [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] [57] [58] [59] [60] [61] [62] [63] [64] [65] [66] [67] [68] [69] next »