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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 27A
2017-09-23 01:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 222351 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 ...CORE OF MARIA GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... ...A COYOTE UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLE LAUNCHED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE SUCCESSFULLY SAMPLED THE EYEWALL OF MARIA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 71.6W ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM ESE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 71.6 West. Maria is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the north is forecast by Saturday night. We are fortunate tonight to have an Air Force and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft sampling Maria. In fact, a Coyote unmanned aerial vehicle launched from the NOAA P3 aircraft successfully measured winds in the eyewall. Data from these platforms indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from both reconnaissance planes is 953 mb (28.14 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the central Bahamas tonight. STORM SURGE: Water levels in the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands will subside through tonight as Maria moves away from those islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Turks and Caicos...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Puerto Rico...additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 40 inches Mayaguana, southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches Inagua Islands and Crooked Island, Bahamas...2 to 6 inches Rest of eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are still affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will begin to increase along portions of the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Maria Graphics
2017-09-22 22:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 20:46:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 21:34:28 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 27
2017-09-22 22:41:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 222041 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A ragged eye has re-appeared during the past several hours, but overall the satellite presentation of Maria has not changed much during the past several hours. The initial intensity is therefore held at 110 kt pending data new data from an ongoing NOAA research mission and an upcoming Air Force Reserve flight. According to various analyses, Maria is under the influence of 20 kt of shear from the southwest, which has apparently eroded the eyewall a bit on that side of the storm. This shear may abate some in about 24 hours, although Maria will also be moving over an area of gradually lowering oceanic heat content. Maria's intensity is therefore only expected to decrease very gradually during the next 48 hours. After that time, the shear is expected to pick up again, and Maria will be moving over the cold wake left behind by Jose. As a result, a steadier weakening should ensue on days 3 through 5. The NHC intensity forecast remains closest to the ICON intensity consensus and is relatively unchanged from the previous advisory. Maria is turning around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered south of Bermuda, and the initial motion estimate is 335/8 kt. The hurricane should turn northward by 36 hours when it moves between the high and a developing cut-off low near the U.S. Gulf coast, and that northward motion, with some east-west wiggles, is likely to continue through day 5. The new track models have shifted significantly westward on this cycle, leaving the interpolated version of the previous forecast (OFCI) by itself on the eastern edge of the guidance suite. Oddly enough, the ECMWF model went from being on the west side of the guidance envelope to the east side, so the westward shift of the new NHC forecast on days 3 through 5 only goes as far as that model and the TVCN consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Flooding continues in portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic due to Maria's heavy rains over the past few days. Continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. Swells from Maria are affecting the coast of the southeastern United States and will likely cause dangerous surf and life- threatening rip currents for the next several days. 3. Maria will move between the east coast of the United States and Bermuda by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to determine what, if any, direct impacts there might be in these areas. 4. For more information on the flooding and rip current hazards in the United States, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service forecast office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 23.3N 71.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 24.3N 71.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 25.9N 72.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 27.5N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 28.8N 72.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 30.7N 72.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 32.5N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 34.5N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2017-09-22 22:40:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 222040 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 8(22) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 6(15) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 6(18) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 5 5(10) 3(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) SAN SALVADOR 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 8 3(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-22 22:40:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 the center of Maria was located near 23.3, -71.4 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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