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Hurricane Maria Graphics

2017-09-22 13:45:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 11:45:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 09:32:43 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-22 13:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... As of 8:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 the center of Maria was located near 21.9, -70.9 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 25A

2017-09-22 13:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 221142 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS OCCURRING ON THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 70.9W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM ESE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has changed the Tropical Storm Watch for the central Bahamas to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 70.9 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a motion toward the north-northwest is expected later today and Saturday. On the forecast track, Maria's eye will move near or just east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas today. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions across portions of the Dominican Republic should subside during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are spreading into the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas and will continue through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas beginning tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Turks and Caicos...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Puerto Rico...additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 40 inches Eastern Dominican Republic...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated storm total amounts 20 inches Western Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...additional 3 to 6 inches Mayaguana, southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches Inagua Islands and Crooked Island, Bahamas...2 to 6 inches Rest of eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas. These swells will reach the remainder of the Bahamas soon and should reach portions of the United States southeastern coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Maria Graphics

2017-09-22 10:50:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 08:50:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Sep 2017 09:32:43 GMT

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 25

2017-09-22 10:44:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220844 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0500 UTC indicated that the central pressure of Maria had risen to 959 mb, accompanied by flight-level winds and SFMR surface wind estimates that supported an intensity near 110 kt. Since that time, the cloud tops in the eyewall have cooled, but the eye has become less distinct in conventional satellite imagery. The initial intensity is held at 110 kt pending the arrival of the next plane near 1200 UTC, but it is possible this is a little generous. Maria is starting to be affected by 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, with the first sign of this being a decrease in convective banding in the western semicircle. The large-scale models forecast some shear to persist through the forecast period, and as a result the intensity guidance predicts a gradual weakening. In addition, after 48 h the forecast track takes the center of Maria over waters that were cooled significantly by the passage of former Hurricane Jose. Based on these factors, the new intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening during the first 48 h similar to the previous forecast, then calls for more weakening than previously forecast as the cyclone reaches the colder waters. The initial motion is 315/6. Maria will be moving between the subtropical ridge to the east and a broad trough over the southeastern United States and the adjacent Atlantic waters during the next several days. This pattern should cause the hurricane to turn north-northwestward and then northward during the next 72 h. The track guidance is tightly clustered during this part of the forecast, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous track. After 72 h, the guidance becomes a little more divergent. The Canadian and ECMWF models are on the left side of the envelope showing a generally northward motion, while the GFS is on the right side showing a north-northeastward motion. This part of the forecast track is nudged just a little to the left of the old forecast and the consensus models to account for the ECMWF/Canadian forecasts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands. Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of the southeastern United States today. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 21.6N 70.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 22.6N 71.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 24.2N 71.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 25.9N 72.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 27.4N 72.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 29.5N 72.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 31.5N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 33.5N 70.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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