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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 26
2017-09-22 16:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 221436 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Even though Maria's eye has become cloud filled since the previous advisory, reconnaissance data indicate that the hurricane has not weakened. The highest flight-level wind measured by the plane was 121 kt, accompanied by SFMR winds as high as 109 kt, so the initial intensity will remain 110 kt. Microwave data and reports from the plane indicate that the eye has opened up on the southwest/west side, which is likely an indicator of increasing southwesterly shear. This shear is expected to persist for at least the next 36 hours, but Maria will be moving over 28-29 degree Celsius water during that time. Therefore, only a very gradual reduction in wind speed is expected for the next 2 days. After that time, Maria will begin to move over a cold pool left behind by Jose, where sea surface temperatures are 26 degrees Celsius or colder. Additional weakening is therefore anticipated on days 3 through 5, and the NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than SHIPS, LGEM, and the intensity consensus to account for the possible effect of the colder waters. Maria continues to move northwestward, or 325/7 kt, around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered south of Bermuda. The hurricane should turn north-northwestward later today and then northward in 24-36 hours when it begins to move between the high and an elongated trough extending southwest of Jose. Although a general northward motion is expected through the end of the forecast period, some notable speed differences develop among the track models from day 3 and beyond. The ECMWF and UKMET are the main outliers, lying on the western side of the guidance envelope. To account for those possible solutions, the NHC track forecast leans a little left of the TVCN multi-model consensus toward the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Flash flooding continues in portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands. Continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. Swells from Maria are beginning to reach the coast of the southeastern United States and will last for several days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean. 3. Maria will be closer to the east coast of the United States and Bermuda by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to determine what, if any, direct impacts there might be in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 22.3N 71.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 23.5N 71.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 25.0N 72.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 26.5N 72.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 27.9N 72.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 30.0N 71.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 32.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 34.0N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-22 16:36:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA STILL PRODUCING 125-MPH WINDS AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 the center of Maria was located near 22.3, -71.0 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 26
2017-09-22 16:36:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 221436 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 ...MARIA STILL PRODUCING 125-MPH WINDS AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 71.0W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued all warnings for the Dominican Republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 71.0 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north by late Saturday. On the forecast track, Maria's core will move away from the Turks and Caicos Islands today, and pass northeast and east of the Bahamas through Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas and will continue through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas beginning tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Saturday: Turks and Caicos...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Puerto Rico...additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum storm total amounts 40 inches Eastern Dominican Republic...additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated storm total amounts 20 inches Western Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...additional 3 to 6 inches Mayaguana, southeast Bahamas...4 to 8 inches Inagua Islands and Crooked Island, Bahamas...2 to 6 inches Rest of eastern Bahamas...1 to 3 inches Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells will reach portions of the United States southeastern coast today and Bermuda tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2017-09-22 16:36:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 221436 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) SAN SALVADOR 34 4 13(17) 5(22) 3(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) SAN SALVADOR 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 38 3(41) 2(43) 1(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) MAYAGUANA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND TURK 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PUERTO PLATA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 26
2017-09-22 16:35:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 221435 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 71.0W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 120SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 71.0W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 70.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.5N 72.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.9N 72.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.0N 71.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 32.0N 71.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 34.0N 71.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 71.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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