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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

2019-09-28 04:36:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 280236 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 62(82) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 49(53) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)

2019-09-28 04:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LORENZO MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Lorenzo was located near 20.8, -44.1 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 22

2019-09-28 04:35:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 135 WTNT33 KNHC 280235 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...LORENZO MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 44.1W ABOUT 1565 MI...2520 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 44.1 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by Saturday night, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. Recent satellite wind data indicate that Lorenzo is still a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 22

2019-09-28 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280233 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 44.1W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 120SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 360SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 44.1W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 44.0W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 120SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.7N 44.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.4N 44.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.0N 43.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 30.7N 41.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 240SE 180SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 36.5N 34.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 45.5N 22.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 44.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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