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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 25
2019-09-28 22:39:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 282039 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 45.0W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 110SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 390SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 45.0W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 230SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-28 16:49:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 14:49:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 15:24:49 GMT
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 24
2019-09-28 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 281447 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 Lorenzo appears to be in the final stages of an eyewall replacement. 37-GHz GCOM imagery from overnight suggested that a smaller inner eyewall was embedded within a larger eye, and the new eyewall now extends 40-45 n mi from the center of circulation. An eye has also reappeared in GOES-16 visible and infrared satellite imagery during the past several hours. Based on Dvorak intensity estimates of T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, and an ADT estimate of T5.3/97 kt, Lorenzo's intensity is still estimated to be 100 kt. Although the hurricane seems to be wobbling a bit, fixes indicate that it has generally turned northward with an initial motion of 350/9 kt. The track forecast remains straightforward, with very little spread among the models and their ensembles. Lorenzo is expected to be nudged north-northeastward and then northeastward starting in 36 hours by strong ridging building over the western Atlantic. The northeastward motion is expected to increase on day 3 when Lorenzo is picked up by a strong deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic, and that acceleration is forecast to continue through day 5. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids and is very similar to the previous forecast. A little bit of west-southwesterly shear continues over Lorenzo, but it's not strong enough to disrupt the circulation significantly. Only a very slow, gradual weakening is forecast during the next 3 days, matching what is indicated by many of the intensity models. Extratropical transition is expected to have begun by day 4 while Lorenzo is moving near the Azores, but that process is not expected to be complete until day 5. Although Lorenzo's winds are forecast to decrease a bit during the extratropical transition due to stronger shear and cold waters, the cyclone is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds through the end of the forecast period. Lorenzo's wind field will remain large, and the hurricane-force wind radii are expected to grow in size during the next couple of days. In addition, large swells continue to radiate outward away from the hurricane and will reach much of the western and northern side of the Atlantic basin in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 22.5N 44.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 23.8N 44.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 25.6N 44.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 27.1N 43.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 33.3N 39.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 40.5N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 51.0N 16.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2019-09-28 16:47:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 281447 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 81(81) 2(83) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 2(52) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-28 16:47:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO TURNS NORTHWARD, STILL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LARGE SWELLS CONTINUE TO RADIATE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 28 the center of Lorenzo was located near 22.5, -44.8 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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