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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 24
2019-09-28 16:47:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 281447 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 ...LORENZO TURNS NORTHWARD, STILL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...LARGE SWELLS CONTINUE TO RADIATE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 44.8W ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 44.8 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday morning. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast on Sunday, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast beginning Monday or Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Only very gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and Lorenzo is forecast to remain a strong hurricane when it turns toward northeastward towards the Azores. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 24
2019-09-28 16:47:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 281447 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 44.8W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT.......240NE 190SE 120SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 44.8W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 44.6W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.8N 44.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 190SE 130SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.6N 44.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...210NE 200SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.1N 43.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 55NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 65NE 65SE 55SW 55NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...210NE 220SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.3N 39.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 210SW 190NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 40.5N 29.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 51.0N 16.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 44.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 23
2019-09-28 10:56:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280856 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 Lorenzo's tilt has grown this morning. AMSR2 imagery at 0505 UTC showed a 20 n mi displacement between the low- and mid-level centers of the hurricane, a consequence of persistent westerly wind shear. Satellite-based intensity estimates vary greatly, from 77 to 110 kt, so the intensity is set to 100 kt as a compromise of all available data. Despite the decrease in Lorenzo's maximum winds during the past 24 hours, earlier ASCAT-C data showed that its hurricane-force wind field has expanded, and now reaches up to 45 n mi to the northeast of the center. The lower initial intensity resulted in a slightly lower intensity forecast through most of the period. The wind shear affecting the cyclone is forecast to continue, and a slow decrease in Lorenzo's peak winds is still expected during the next several days. The official intensity forecast is very near the intensity consensus. Despite the expected decrease in intensity, the hurricane is not forecast to decrease in size, and in fact Lorenzo's hurricane-force wind field could increase further by next week. Because of that, users are urged to not focus on the exact intensity of Lorenzo since the cyclone will likely remain a powerful storm well into next week. By 120 h, all of the global models indicate that Lorenzo will become post-tropical, and so does the NHC forecast. The aforementioned microwave data was very helpful in identifying Lorenzo's center location. The hurricane has continued to move left of the forecast track, and the initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. Despite Lorenzo's recent tendency to move farther west than anticipated, the hurricane is still forecast to turn northward soon. After continuing northward and north-northeastward for a day or two, Lorenzo should accelerate toward the northeast ahead of a deep mid-latitude trough approaching from the west by mid-week. The NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly left for the first 48 h to account for Lorenzo's recent motion, but it is very similar to the previous forecast at 72 h and beyond. The models are in excellent agreement for the first 3 days of the forecast but the uncertainty grows by the end of the period, primarily due to differences in the forecast forward speed of the cyclone as it recurves and becomes post-tropical. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 21.4N 44.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 22.7N 44.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 24.5N 44.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 26.0N 44.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 27.6N 43.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 31.5N 40.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 38.0N 32.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 48.0N 19.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-28 10:46:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 08:46:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 09:24:45 GMT
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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2019-09-28 10:45:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 280845 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 28(75) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 26(44) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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