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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 19
2019-09-27 10:50:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 982 WTNT23 KNHC 270850 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 42.1W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT.......150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT.......230NE 190SE 100SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 42.1W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 41.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.1N 42.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 190SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.8N 43.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 190SE 100SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.5N 43.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.1N 43.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.7N 41.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 33.3N 37.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 40.0N 30.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 42.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-27 04:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 02:34:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2019 03:31:25 GMT
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 18
2019-09-27 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 243 WTNT43 KNHC 270233 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Lorenzo has intensified even more this evening, with a clear eye characterized by warm temperatures of up to 17 degrees Celsius. The eye is now completely surrounded by a ring of convection with cold cloud tops less than minus 70 degrees Celsius. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB, as well as the objective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT unanimously support increasing the initial intensity to 125 kt. Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with tropical storm force winds extending over 200 n mi from the center in the northern semicircle, and a cirrus cloud canopy that spans greater than a 10 degree latitude by 10 degree longitude area. The initial motion is now north-northwest, or 330/12 kt. Model guidance is in very good agreement throughout the 5 day period on the future track of Lorenzo. The hurricane will move through a break in the subtropical ridge currently to its northwest over the next couple of days, gradually turning to the north then northeast as it rounds the periphery of a ridge to its east. Late in the forecast period, Lorenzo will begin to accelerate as it gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. The model guidance made a slight shift to the left since the previous advisory, but since the same guidance shifted right earlier today, I did not want to make much of a change to the track. The official forecast track is very near the previous one, and is now on the right side of the consensus guidance. The environment around Lorenzo is expected to change little over the next day or so. Both dynamical and statistical guidance are suggesting that the hurricane is nearing peak intensity. Therefore only fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are expected through about Friday night. Over the weekend, some moderate westerly shear ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough could begin to slowly weaken the cyclone. Late in the forecast period, the combination of strong upper level southwesterly winds and cooler sea surface temperatures should cause a faster weakening trend. The official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and a little higher than most of the guidance through the first 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.6N 41.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 19.1N 42.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 21.0N 43.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 22.7N 43.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 24.4N 43.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 27.8N 41.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 31.8N 39.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 37.5N 33.2W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2019-09-27 04:32:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 270232 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-27 04:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EXTREMELY POWERFUL LORENZO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...SWELLS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 26 the center of Lorenzo was located near 17.6, -41.5 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 939 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.
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