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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-28 10:44:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARGE LORENZO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 28 the center of Lorenzo was located near 21.4, -44.8 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 957 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 23
2019-09-28 10:44:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 280844 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 ...LARGE LORENZO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 44.8W ABOUT 1560 MI...2510 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 44.8 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is anticipated today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, however, Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. Lorenzo is a large hurricane and hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 23
2019-09-28 10:42:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 280842 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 44.8W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT.......120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT.......250NE 170SE 120SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 330SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 44.8W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 44.6W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.7N 44.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 170SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.5N 44.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 170SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.0N 44.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.6N 43.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 210SE 160SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 31.5N 40.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 230SE 180SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.0N 32.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 48.0N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 44.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-09-28 04:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 02:38:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Sep 2019 02:38:13 GMT
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 22
2019-09-28 04:36:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280236 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 Lorenzo's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate this evening. A series of SSMI and GMI microwave overpasses revealed inner core erosion, particularly in the south portion. The images also showed a significant south to north vertical tilt of the cyclone, indicative of the moderate southwesterly shear undercutting the impressive upper-tropospheric diffluent flow. A blend of all the available subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, as well as an earlier SATCON analysis, yields an initial intensity of 105 kt for this advisory. Lorenzo will remain over warm oceanic sea surface temperatures for the next 3 days. Nonetheless, the stiff southwesterly shear should inhibit strengthening, although there is a slight chance of short-term fluctuations in intensity caused by eyewall replacement cycles. Beyond the 72 hour period, Lorenzo is expected to encounter stronger mid-latitude westerlies, move over cooler waters, and undergo extratropical transition as it interacts with a baroclinic zone moving over the central north Atlantic. The NHC forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus and Florida State Superensemble intensity models. The aforementioned microwave images also indicate that Lorenzo has been moving a little to the left of track, and the initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or 335/8 kt. The song remains the same, no change in the track forecast philosophy. Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the eastern Atlantic. Around mid-period, Lorenzo is forecast to accelerate toward the northeast, in the mid-latitude westerly flow, in response to a deep-layer major shortwave trough approaching from the north-central Atlantic. The track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one and is close to the various consensus aids. The wind radii have been adjusted using 2308 UTC METOP-B scatterometer data. The forecast wind radii, beyond the 48 hour period, is based primarily on the RVCN global consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 20.8N 44.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 23.7N 44.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 25.4N 44.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 27.0N 43.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 01/0000Z 30.7N 41.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 02/0000Z 36.5N 34.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 03/0000Z 45.5N 22.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
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