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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 21

2019-09-27 22:36:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 272035 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 The satellite appearance of Lorenzo has degraded further since the last advisory, with only a hint of an eye still apparent in visible imagery and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall becoming very asymmetric in infrared imagery. A recent SSMI/S overpass shows that the southern portion of the eyewall has eroded, possibly due to shear or dry air intrusion. The microwave imagery also suggests an outer convective band is forming, but it is not yet well enough defined to call it an outer eyewall. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease, and the initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt as a blend of the various estimates. The hurricane continues to have excellent outflow in the northern semicircle. The initial motion remains 330/12 kt. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy or the forecast confidence, as Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the west. The track guidance for this advisory, while it remains tightly clustered in direction, is a little slower than the previous guidance. Based on this, the new forecast track is just a little slower than the previous forecast. Lorenzo will be passing over sea surface temperatures of 27-28C for the next 48-72 h. However, it will be in an environment of moderate vertical shear due to an upper-level trough not far to the west. The intensity guidance responds to this by showing gradual weakening during this time, and the new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance. There is a possibility of fluctuations in intensity caused by eyewall replacement cycles superimposed on this weakening trend. After 72 h, the hurricane should encounter stronger mid-latitude westerlies, move over cooler sea surface temperatures, and eventually merge with the above-mentioned deep-layer trough. As this occurs, Lorenzo is forecast to undergo extratropical transition, with this being complete by 120 h. Current indications from the global models are that Lorenzo will retain hurricane strength through the transition. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 20.3N 43.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 21.6N 44.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 23.3N 44.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 25.0N 44.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 26.6N 43.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 30.3N 41.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 35.5N 36.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 44.0N 26.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)

2019-09-27 22:35:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LORENZO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT REMAINS VERY LARGE... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Lorenzo was located near 20.3, -43.6 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 21

2019-09-27 22:35:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 272034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...LORENZO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT REMAINS VERY LARGE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 43.6W ABOUT 1575 MI...2535 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 43.6 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. However, Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through the weekend. A combination of satellite wind data and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Lorenzo remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and will affect portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning tonight through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 21

2019-09-27 22:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 272034 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 43.6W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT.......150NE 130SE 50SW 130NW. 34 KT.......230NE 220SE 120SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 360SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 43.6W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 43.3W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.6N 44.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 130NW. 34 KT...230NE 220SE 120SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.3N 44.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 35NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.6N 43.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.3N 41.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 230SE 160SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 35.5N 36.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 44.0N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 43.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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