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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 20
2019-09-27 16:42:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 271442 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 The structure of Lorenzo in conventional satellite imagery has decayed a little since the last advisory, with the eye becoming less distinct and the eyewall convection becoming more asymmetric. There is no current microwave imagery to show whether this weakening might be due to the start of an eyewall replacement cycle or not. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little, so the initial intensity is reduced to 120 kt. The hurricane has excellent cirrus outflow in all directions except to the southwest. The initial motion is 330/12 kt. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy or the forecast confidence, as Lorenzo should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. By the end of the forecast period, Lorenzo is expected to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the west. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the left of the previous track based mainly on the initial position, and it lies near the various consensus models. Lorenzo is currently passing over a tongue of slightly cooler sea surface temperatures, and it is forecast to reach slightly warmer water in 12-24 h. After that, it stays over sea surface temperatures near 28C through about 72 h. During this time, the intensity will be controlled mainly by internal eyewall replacement cycles and some ups and downs in the vertical shear as the hurricane interacts with a couple of upper-level troughs. The intensity guidance shows a slow weakening trend during this time, and the NHC intensity forecast follows this. However, it would not be surprising to see some fluctuations in intensity occur. After 72 h, the cyclone will become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and move over much colder water. This, and the approach of the aforementioned deep-layer trough, will lead to extratropical transition that will be underway, but likely not complete, by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 19.4N 42.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 20.8N 43.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 22.6N 44.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 24.2N 44.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 25.9N 43.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 29.6N 41.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 34.5N 37.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 42.5N 28.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2019-09-27 16:42:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 271442 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 79(81) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-27 16:41:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 27 the center of Lorenzo was located near 19.4, -42.9 with movement NNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 943 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 20
2019-09-27 16:41:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 271441 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019 ...LORENZO WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 42.9W ABOUT 1600 MI...2575 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 42.9 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected tonight or on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible today, and slow weakening is forecast to begin by the weekend. Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the northeastern coast of South America and will affect portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning later today through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 20
2019-09-27 16:41:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 271441 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 42.9W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT.......150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT.......230NE 190SE 110SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 360SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 42.9W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 42.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.8N 43.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...230NE 190SE 110SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.6N 44.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 190SE 110SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.2N 44.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.9N 43.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.6N 41.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 230SE 160SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.5N 37.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 42.5N 28.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 42.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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