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Summary for Tropical Storm Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-09-24 04:36:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 23 the center of Lorenzo was located near 11.6, -26.7 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 5
2019-09-24 04:36:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 240236 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019 ...LORENZO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER OPEN WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 26.7W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 26.7 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west to west-northwest motion is expected for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-09-24 04:36:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 240236 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-09-24 04:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 240236 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 26.7W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 26.7W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 26.0W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 12.1N 28.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.8N 31.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 13.4N 34.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 60SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.0N 37.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 70SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.1N 41.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 70SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N 44.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N 46.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 26.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-09-23 22:34:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 232033 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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