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Summary for Remnants of MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-16 10:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL DISSIPATES OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 the center of MANUEL was located near 20.6, -105.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Remnants of MANUEL Public Advisory Number 12
2013-09-16 10:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160834 TCPEP3 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013 ...MANUEL DISSIPATES OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 105.3W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MANUEL HAS DISSIPATED OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC... THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...JALISCO...AND NAYARIT. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Remnants of MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-09-16 10:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160834 TCDEP3 REMNANTS OF MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MANUEL NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. THE CYCLONE HAS DISSIPATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR A FEW DAYS. THE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD FORM IN THIS AREA IN A FEW DAYS...AND THE REMNANTS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. EVEN THOUGH MANUEL HAS DISSIPATED...VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 20.6N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Remnants of MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2013-09-16 10:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160834 PWSEP3 REMNANTS OF MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED NA NA NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION NA NA NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE NA NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND NA NA NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Remnants of MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 12
2013-09-16 10:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160833 TCMEP3 REMNANTS OF MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 105.3W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 105.3W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 105.2W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 105.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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