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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Public Advisory Number 17
2016-07-19 16:40:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 191440 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 ...ESTELLE COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 118.8W ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Estelle was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 118.8 West. Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today or tonight, and Estelle could still become a hurricane. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2016-07-19 16:40:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 191440 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-19 11:11:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2016 08:33:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2016 09:05:14 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-19 10:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE HOLDING STEADY BUT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 the center of ESTELLE was located near 18.5, -117.6 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 16
2016-07-19 10:31:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 190831 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 0900 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 117.6W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 117.6W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 117.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.9N 119.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.3N 121.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.7N 123.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.3N 126.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.1N 131.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 25.0N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 28.5N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 117.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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