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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2016-07-19 22:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 192035 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 2100 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Advisory Number 18
2016-07-19 22:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 192033 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 2100 UTC TUE JUL 19 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 119.8W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 119.8W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 119.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.3N 121.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.7N 123.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.1N 126.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.1N 129.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.7N 134.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 27.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 31.0N 141.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 119.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-19 17:11:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2016 14:40:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2016 15:05:12 GMT
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 17
2016-07-19 16:44:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 191444 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016 Estelle has a well-defined low-level structure with an eye-feature noted in an early morning GPM microwave overpass. However, the convection surrounding the low-level center has not been particularity deep or persistent. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 4.0, but objective estimates are lower and until the convection is able to maintain itself around the center, I have elected to maintain the previous intensity of 55 kt. Estelle has a little more than 24 hours remaining over warm water and in a low vertical wind shear environment. Most of the intensity guidance calls for little change in strength, but the NHC forecast will once again show Estelle reaching hurricane strength given the good low-level structure and seemingly favorable conditions. After 24 hours, Estelle will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs and into a less favorable thermodynamic conditions. This should lead to steady weakening and degeneration into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The tropical storm is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estelle is expected to move on a west to west-northwestward track to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. A mid- to upper-level forecast to drop south-southwestward between 140W and 150W is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge after day 3. As a result, Estelle is predicted to turn northwestward later in the forecast period. The model guidance continued to be in good agreement, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 18.8N 118.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 19.2N 120.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 19.6N 122.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 20.0N 125.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 20.7N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 22.9N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 26.0N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/1200Z 29.5N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-19 16:40:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 19 the center of ESTELLE was located near 18.8, -118.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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